Public Infrastructure Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from a Disaggregated Expenditure

Biira; Samuel; Amadi; Chukuemeka Robert; Nwikina; Christian Gbarawae; Onyema; Joseph Iroka

doi:10.56201/ijbfr.vol.12.no9.2026.pg162.174

📄 Download Paper

Public Infrastructure Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from a Disaggregated Expenditure

Biira, Samuel, Amadi, Chukuemeka Robert, Nwikina, Christian Gbarawae and, Onyema, Joseph Iroka

Abstract

This study examines the effect of disaggregated public infrastructure expenditures on economic growth in Nigeria 1990 to 2024, using gross domestic product per capita as the measure of economic performance. Specifically, the study investigates the effects of road and construction, education, health, communication, and security infrastructure expenditures on Gross domestic product per capita. Data were sourced mainly from World Development Indicators of the World Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that road and construction infrastructure has a positive and statistically significant effect on GDPPC in both the short and long run. Education, health, and communication infrastructure also exhibit positive and statistically significant effects, highlighting their importance to economic development. In contrast, security infrastructure has a positive but statistically insignificant relationship with GDPPC in both periods. The study concludes that greater investment in productive infrastructure, particularly road and construction, education, health, and communication infrastructure, is essential for improving economic performance in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends efficient and sustained public investment in these infrastructure components to promote higher GDP per capita and sustainable economic development.

Keywords

Public Infrastructure ExpenditureEconomic GrowthEducation ExpenditureHealth ExpenditureARDLNigeria

References

Abebe, I. T., & Gbalam, P. E. (2025). Road infrastructure expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria fiscal data. Journal of Accounting and Financial Management, 11(12), 504–518. Amadi, S. N., & Odu, G. D. (2022). Government infrastructure spending on growth of the Nigeria economy (1981–2019). International Journal of Progressive Sciences and Technologies , 30(2), 295–303. Aninwagu, V. O., Momodu, A. A., & Momodu, M. (2026). Determinants of economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Allied Research, 11(1), 588–601. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19520052 Aninwagu, V. O., Onyema, J. I., Momodu, A. A., Amadi, C. R. (2024). Investment in Infrastructural and Economic Growth in Nigeria from 1990 - 2022. International Journal of Applied Economics, Agriculture and Management Sciences (IJAAMS, 2(2), 149-163. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5358951 Arrow, K. J. (1962). The economic implications of learning by doing. The Review of Economic Studies, 29(3), 155–173. Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0 Balogun, W. (2022). Infrastructural development and economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Intellectual Discourse, 4(3), 229–241. Calderón, C., & Chong, A. (2004). Volume and quality of infrastructure and the distribution of income: An empirical investigation. Review of Income and Wealth, 50(1), 87–106. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0034-6586.2004.00113.x Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2004). The effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3400. Enimola, S. S. (2010). Infrastructure and economic growth: The Nigeria experience, 1980 2006. SAGE Open/Journal publication. Enya, F. O., Ezeali, B., & O. (2021). Public investment in infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria (1980–2020). African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(3), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.52589/AJESD-0JM1VBER Jedwab, R., & Moradi, A. (2016). The permanent effects of transportation revolutions in poor countries: Evidence from Africa. Review of Economics and Statistics, 98(2), 268–284. [The Nigeria railway evidence is also reported in their Journal of Development Economics study.] Krugman, P. (1991). Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 483–499. Lucas, R. E., Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. Nedozi, F. O., Obasanmi, J. O., & Ighata, J. A. (2019). Infrastructural development and economic growth in Nigeria: Using simultaneous equation. Journal of Economics, 5(3), 325–332 Nyeche, E., Ekine, D. I. (2018). Trade openness and transport sector output growth in Nigeria (1986 2016). International Journal of Advanced Studies in Ecology, Development and Sustainability, 5(1), 91-105. Olayiwola, H. O. (2022). Physical infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Social Science, Entrepreneurship and Technology, 1(6). Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002–1037. Straub, S. (2011). Infrastructure and development: A critical appraisal of the macro-level literature. Journal of Development Studies, 47(5), 683–708. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2010.509785 World Bank. (2020). Nigeria: A country private sector diagnostic—Creating markets in Nigeria. World Bank. (2026). Nigeria: Data. World Development Indicators.

Public Infrastructure Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from a Disaggregated Expenditure

Abstract

Keywords

References

More Articles from IIARD INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BANKING AND FINANCE RESEARCH