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Artificial Intelligence and the Productivity Imperative: Repositioning Nigeria's Technical and Vocational Education System for an AI-Enabled Economy

Stephen Ishaya, Shadrach Adams Brandford, PhD

Abstract

Nigeria's development trajectory is increasingly defined by a paradox: an economy that grows in aggregate terms while productivity, particularly labour productivity, remains stubbornly low and unevenly distributed across sectors. This paper argues that artificial intelligence (AI), if deliberately embedded into Technical and Vocational Education and Training , offers Nigeria a realistic pathway out of this productivity trap. Drawing on Human Capital Theory, Skill-Biased Technological Change theory, and the Capability Approach, and grounding the analysis in current labour market, macroeconomic, and policy data, the paper diagnoses Nigeria's productivity challenge as fundamentally a human-capital and skills-allocation problem rather than a purely macroeconomic one. It then examines the structural weaknesses of Nigeria's polytechnic sub-sector, including chronic underfunding, curricular obsolescence, and weak industry linkages, against the backdrop of the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy (2025-2029) and emerging NBTE-led AI pilot initiatives. The paper proposes an original six-stage model, the AI-Enabled TVET Productivity Repositioning Framework , which links curriculum intelligence, pedagogical augmentation, competency certification, industry-institution interfacing, institutional governance, and a recursive productivity feedback loop, presented here as a visual cyclical model alongside the supporting empirical indicators in tabulated form. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for the National Board for Technical Education, the National Information Technology Development Agency, the Tertiary Education Trust Fund, polytechnic management, and private-sector partners, positioning polytechnics not as passive recipients of AI policy but as the primary institutional engine for translating Nigeria's AI ambitions into measurable productivity gains.

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence; Productivity; Technical and Vocational Education; Polytechnics; Nigeria; Skills Development; National AI Strategy; Human Capital

References

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