Mineral Production and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of mineral production on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Nigeria over the period 1989 to 2024, using mining and quarrying, crude petroleum and natural gas production, coal production, and metal ores as proxies for mineral production. Anchored on the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and estimated with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing approach, the study draws on annual time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the World Development Indicators of the World Bank. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests confirmed a mixed order of integration among the series, justifying the ARDL framework, while the bounds test confirmed a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. The results showed that mining and quarrying, crude petroleum and natural gas production, and coal production each exert a positive and statistically significant effect on CO2 emissions in both the short run and the long run, while metal ores exert a positive but statistically insignificant effect. Diagnostic checks confirmed that the estimated model is normally distributed, free of serial correlation and heteroscedasticity, correctly specified, and stable. The study concluded that mineral production is a significant driver of carbon emissions in Nigeria and recommends stricter enforcement of environmental regulation, incentives for cleaner extraction technologies, and diversification away from emission-intensive mineral production.

Keywords

References