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Digital Financial Services and Economic Development in Nigeria: A Short-Run Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Odoemelam, Ezinne Neily, Ewubare, Dennis B. and Isukul, Araniyar Chinedu

Abstract

The study examined the short-run effect of digital financial services on human development in Nigeria, using quarterly data on Automated Teller Machine , mobile payment, point-of- sale , and web payment transactions against the Human Development Index for the period 2012Q1–2023Q4. The study applied the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin unit-root test, the Johansen cointegration test, and Vector Autoregression , estimated in E-Views 12. All series were found to be integrated of order one, I(1), with no evidence of cointegration among them. The VAR estimates show that HDI is driven almost entirely by its own past values (coefficient = 0.944, t = 6.24), while none of the four digital financial services channels has a statistically significant short-run effect on HDI. The only significant cross-channel relationship is a positive effect of mobile payments on subsequent ATM activity. These findings suggest that, in the short run, Nigeria's digital financial services ecosystem remains fragmented and that human development responds to sustained, cumulative processes rather than immediate financial-technology shocks. The study recommends complementary, sustained investment in education, health, and digital infrastructure alongside digital financial services expansion.

Keywords

Digital Financial Services; Human Development Index; Vector Autoregression; Financial Inclusion

References

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