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Modelling Industrial Sector Performance on Economic Development in Nigeria

Ihim, Ogechi Linda, Prof. Momodu, Austin Ayodele, Prof. Ewubare, Dennis Brown, Prof. Onyema, Joseph Iroka

Abstract

This study examined the effect of industrial sector performance on economic development in Nigeria, with emphasis on the manufacturing, crude oil and natural gas, construction, and electricity subsectors, while real GDP per capita served as the proxy for economic development. Annual time series data covering the period 1981–2024 were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria , National Bureau of Statistics , World Development Indicators , U.S. Energy Information Administration , and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission . The study employed the Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds cointegration approach, and the ARDL estimation technique. The unit root test revealed a mixed order of integration of the series, while the Bounds cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The ARDL estimates revealed that manufacturing output and electricity generation exert positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP per capita in both the short and long run. Crude oil and natural gas output had a positive and statistically significant effect only in the short run. Construction output exerted a positive but insignificant effect in the short run and a significant negative effect in the long run. The study concludes that industrial sector performance is a critical driver of economic development in Nigeria. It recommends expanding electricity infrastructure through increased public-private partnerships and renewable energy integration, while improving efficiency in the construction sector through effective project monitoring and implementation. P-ISSN 2695-186X

Keywords

Industrial sector PerformanceEconomic DevelopmentManufacturingCrude Oil and Natural GasConstructionElectricity.

References

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