Submit your papersSubmit Now
For Enquiries: [email protected]
IIARD LogoIIARD

Industrial Sector Performance and Human Development in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Time Series Analysis

Ihim, Ogechi Linda, Prof. Ewubare, Dennis Brown, Prof. Momodu, Austin Ayodele, Prof. Onyema, Joseph Iroka

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between industrial sector performance and human development in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning 1981–2024. The industrial sector was disaggregated into four core subsectors: manufacturing, crude oil and natural gas, construction, and electricity. Data for the study were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics , Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, United Nations Development Programme Human Development Reports, U.S. Energy Information Administration , and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission . The study applied Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds cointegration test, and the ARDL estimation technique. The unit root test indicated that the variables were integrated of mixed orders, I(0) and I(1), while the bounds test established a long- run relationship among the variables. The ARDL estimates revealed that manufacturing and crude oil and natural gas outputs exert positive and statistically significant effects on the Human Development Index in both the short and long run. Furthermore, construction output exhibits a significant positive effect on HDI only in the short run, whereas electricity generation exerts a positive and statistically significant effect in the long run. The study concludes that industrial sector performance plays a vital role in improving human development in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study recommends policies that ensure the productive utilization of oil and gas revenues for human capital development, promote investment in social infrastructure, and improve electricity infrastructure to support long-term human development. P-ISSN 2695-186X

Keywords

Industrial sector performanceHuman Development IndexTime SeriesUnit Root TestARDL.

References

Adejumo, A. V., Olomola, P. A., & Adejumo, O. O. (2013). The role of human capital in industrial development: The Nigerian case. Modern Economy, 4(9), 624–634. Adenikinju, A. (2020). Analysis of the performance and structural constraints of the Nigerian industrial sector. Journal of Economic Policy and Industrial Development, 8(3), 45–67. Adeosun, O., Odior, E., Shittu, A., & Adegbite, W. (2023). Industrial sector performance, human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Business Studies, 16(2), 163–177. Aigbokhan, B. E. (2008). Infrastructure and economic development in Nigeria: A review of experience. CBN Economic and Financial Review, 46(1), 25–40. Ajakaiye, D. O., & Fakiyesi, T. O. (2009). Global financial crisis discussion series: Paper 8—The global financial crisis and the Nigerian economy. Overseas Development Institute. Akidi, V., Cookey, I. F., & Olise, O. T. (2025). Empirical analysis of commodity trade on economic well-being: Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Research, 11(1), 269–288. Central Bank of Nigeria. (2022). Statistical bulletin. https://www.cbn.gov.ng Chenery, H. B. (1979). Structural change and development policy. Oxford University Press. Chukwu, K. O., & Nduka, J. A. (2022). Manufacturing sector and economic development of Nigeria. Journal of Early Childhood and Science Education (JETMASE), 4(2), 63–74. https://jetmase.com/index.php/jetmase/article/view/63 Dauda, R. O. S. (2017). An economic assessment of the industrial sector in Nigeria's fledgling Fourth Republic. International Journal of Social Sciences, 3(1), 136–149. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517 Ezekwe, C. I., Otto, G., Ozigbu, J. C., & Morris, R. (2022). Oil rents and human development outcomes in Nigeria: Evidence from a non-linear bounds approach to cointegration. Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(2), 52–63. Haq, M. (1995). Reflections on human development. Oxford University Press. Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The strategy of economic development. Yale University Press. Iyoha, M. A., & Oriakhi, D. E. (2002). Explaining African economic growth performance: The case of Nigeria. African Economic Research Consortium. Kida, M. I., & Angahar, J. S. (2016). Industrialization and economic growth in Nigeria. Lafia Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(1), 1–11. Klugman, J., Rodríguez, F., & Choi, H.-J. (2011). The HDI 2010: New controversies, old critiques. Journal of Economic Inequality, 9(2), 249–288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9178- z Korgbeelo, C., & Deekor, L. N. (2021). Time-series analysis of industrial sector performance and economic growth in Nigeria: A disaggregated approach. Cross Current International Journal of Economics, Management and Media Studies, 3(4), 35–46. https://doi.org/10.36344/ccijemms.2021.v03i04.001 Momodu, A., Ewubare, D. B., & Chamone, S. (2024). Power sector and economic development in Nigeria: An empirical investigation (Working paper). Musa, A. B., Tahir, H. M. I., & Thompson, A. (2017). Effects of electricity supply on economic growth in Nigeria (1980–2012): Vector autoregressive approach. European Journal of Business and Management, 9(27), 1–11. P-ISSN 2695-186X Nwakoby, C. N. I., & Alajekwe, B. U. (2022). Manufacturing sector output and human development in the post-structural adjustment era in Nigeria. Journal of Academic Research in Economics, 14(2), 241–258. Nwogwugwu, U. C. C., & Okoli, C. (2019). Impact of oil revenue on human development indicators in Nigeria. International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, 7(6), 34–52. Okoye, L. U., Nwakoby, N. P., & Okorie, V. C. (2016). Industrial sector and Nigeria’s economic development. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(4), 184–197. Ologunde, I. A., Kapingura, F. M., & Sibanda, K. (2020). Sustainable development and crude oil revenue: A case of selected crude oil-producing African countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(18), Article 6799. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Pt. 2), S71–S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725 Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson. Udeaja, E. A., Akanni, O. P., & Offum, I. (2021). Industrial sector performance and access to credit in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 12(2), 145–166. United Nations Development Programme. (2024). Human development report 2023/2024. https://hdr.undp.org United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2019). Industrial development report 2020: Industrializing in the digital age. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. World Bank. (2022). Reassessing Nigeria's labor market: A statistical review. World Bank.

More Articles from IIARD INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT