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Population Growth, Unemployment and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Kefas, Lazarus, Amadi Kingsley

Abstract

This study examined population growth, unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1990–2024. The specific objectives were to examine the effect of population growth on economic growth, evaluate the impact of unemployment on economic growth, and determine the existence of a long-run relationship among population growth, unemployment, and economic growth in Nigeria. The study employed an ex-post facto research design and relied on annual time-series secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Economic growth was proxied by the Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate , while unemployment rate and population growth rate served as the main explanatory variables; inflation rate was included as a control variable. The analytical techniques adopted include descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test for cointegration, and ARDL long-run and short-run estimations, alongside relevant diagnostic tests. The unit root results revealed that the variables were integrated of mixed orders, I(0) and I(1), justifying the use of the ARDL approach. The ARDL bounds test indicated the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Empirical findings from the long-run estimates showed that unemployment rate exerted a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth, while population growth had a positive but statistically insignificant effect. Inflation was found to have a negative and significant effect on economic growth. The study concludes that although population growth has the potential to support economic growth, its benefits are undermined by persistent unemployment and macroeconomic instability. Consequently, the study recommends that Federal government policies should prioritize employment generation, human capital development, and effective population management, alongside macroeconomic stabilization measures, to achieve sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords

population growthunemploymenteconomic growthARDL bounds testingNigeria

References

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