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Earned Value Management Beyond Compliance: Reconciling SPI/CPI Metrics with Predictive Forecasting in Complex Projects

Dominic Feboh, Ogochukwu T. Izuchukwu, Abeebat Ajirotutu

Abstract

This review examines the continuing relevance of Earned Value Management as a project- control framework for complex delivery environments where cost, schedule, risk and governance pressures intersect. Its purpose is to assess how traditional performance indicators, particularly the Schedule Performance Index and Cost Performance Index, can be interpreted beyond compliance reporting and integrated with predictive forecasting to strengthen managerial foresight. The study adopts a conceptual review approach, drawing on scholarly literature on earned value methods, project governance, forecasting, data quality, risk-informed control and sectoral project performance. The review finds that SPI and CPI remain valuable diagnostic measures because they provide concise evidence of schedule efficiency and cost efficiency against an approved baseline. However, the analysis also shows that these indicators become limited when treated as isolated numerical outputs. They may reveal deviation but cannot, by themselves, explain baseline weakness, critical-path exposure, uncertainty, data unreliability or future recovery probability. The study further establishes that predictive forecasting, including earned schedule logic, statistical modelling, risk-adjusted analysis, estimate-at-completion methods and integrated data visualisation, can reposition earned value information as an anticipatory governance instrument. The review concludes that effective project control requires the reconciliation of conventional EVM metrics with predictive intelligence, reliable measurement systems and disciplined governance response. It recommends that organisations strengthen baseline assurance, improve data integrity, integrate cost-schedule-risk platforms, develop project-control capability and establish clear escalation thresholds for early corrective action. Overall, the paper affirms that earned value information should not merely document past performance; it should support timely prediction, accountability and strategic intervention in complex projects. This perspective advances more resilient, transparent and evidence-led project delivery practice globally.

Keywords

Earned Value Management; Schedule Performance Index; Cost Performance Index; predictive forecasting; project governance; complex projects.

References

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