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Russia-Ukraine War: A Realist Analysis of its Causes and Implication for International Relations

Hafiz, Idris Babadaho

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine War has emerged as one of the most significant geopolitical conflicts of the twenty-first century, with far-reaching implications for international security, global governance, and economic stability. This study examines the conflict through the lens of Realist theory, focusing on the historical origins of the war, the strategic motivations of the key actors, and its implications for international relations. A qualitative research design was adopted, relying on secondary data obtained from peer-reviewed journal articles, policy documents, and scholarly publications. The study finds that the conflict is primarily driven by power politics, security concerns, and balance- of-power dynamics within an anarchic international system. The findings further reveal that NATO expansion, Russia’s perception of strategic encirclement, and Ukraine’s geopolitical significance contributed significantly to the escalation of tensions. While Liberal and Constructivist perspectives provide important insights regarding institutional failure and identity politics, Realism offers the most comprehensive explanation of the conflict. The study concludes that the Russia–Ukraine War demonstrates the continuing relevance of Realist theory in explaining contemporary interstate conflicts and highlights the enduring importance of national interests and security considerations in international politics. The study recommends strengthening diplomatic engagement, improving security dialogue among major powers, and promoting cooperative mechanisms to reduce future geopolitical tensions.

Keywords

Russia–Ukraine WarRealismInternational RelationsSecurity DilemmaNATO ExpansionBalance of PowerGeopolitics.

References

Al Jazeera. (2026, February 24). Average territorial gains in Ukraine [Map]. Al Jazeera. Retrieved from Al Jazeera. Edinger, H. (2022). Offensive ideas: Structural realism, classical realism and Putin's war on Ukraine. International Affairs, 98(6), 1873–1893. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac217 Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. (2025). Global food security implications of the Russia– Ukraine War. Genini, D. (2025). Countering hybrid threats: How NATO must adapt after the war in Ukraine. New Perspectives, 33(2), 122–149. https://doi.org/10.1177/2336825X251322719 Gheciu, A., & von Hlatky, S. (2024). Irreconcilable differences? NATO's response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. International Journal, 79(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020241255999 Institute for the Study of War . (2025, August 17). Russian military control in Ukraine [Map]. Institute for the Study of War. Mamedov, I. (2025). A fragile narrative: Transformations and consistency in the Russian representation of the war in Ukraine. Media, War &

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