Submit your papersSubmit Now
For Enquiries: [email protected]
IIARD LogoIIARD

Population Growth and Real Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

Asima, Yengilayeofori, Amadi, Chukwuemeka Roberts, Ewubare, Dennis Brown, and, Momodu, Ayodele Austin

Abstract

This study empirically evaluates the impact of population growth on real gross domestic product in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. Specifically, the study examined the effect of population growth indicators (birth rate, death rate, fertility rate, net immigration) on real gross domestic product proxy for economic growth. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the study made use of annual time series data which were mainly sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria 2023 statistical bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics 2023 report and 2023 World Development Indicators of World Bank. The techniques of data analysis used include descriptive statistics, trend analysis, multicollinearity test using correlation matrix, ADF unit root test, bounds cointegration test and ARDL approach. The findings of the study revealed that birth rate had a positive and significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. On the other hand, death rate has a negative and significant on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. In addition, fertility rate has a positive and non-significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Lastly, net immigration had a negative and significant effect on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Based on the empirical results, the study concluded that population growth significantly influences economic growth in Nigeria, both in the short run and the long run. The study recommends that there is an urgent need for government intervention in population management. The Nigerian government should strengthen national population policies and implement effective family planning programs to control excessive population growth.

Keywords

Population GrowthReal GDPBirth RateDeath RateFertility Rate

References

Akinola, A. (2021). An analysis on the impact of population growth on the economy of Nigeria. IJONESS, 14(2), 43-64. Apinoko, R., Olowu, I. P. and Ikporo, K. (2024). The effect of population dynamics on economic growth performance in Nigeria. International Journal Social Science Humanities Research. 07(04), 75-88. Central Bank of Nigeria. (2023). Annual economic report 2022. Central Bank of Nigeria. Chang T, Chu HP, Deale FW, Gupta R, Miller SM (2017). The relationship between population growth and standard-of-living growth over 1870–2013: evidence from a bootstrapped panel Granger causality test. Empirica 44 (1): 175-201. Chang, T. C., Deale, F. W and Gupta, R (2014).The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality Test. University of Pretoria, Department of Economics working paper 2014-31. Efuntade, O. O., & Efuntade, A. O. (2020). Effect of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria. International Journals of Business and Finance Management Research, 4(2), 41- 55. Ewubare, D. B. & Odu, G. D. (2024). Migration and economic development in Nigeria. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 8(12), 2561-2572. Hisa, S. and Y. Hisa. 2023. The effect of adult mortality on population, economic growth and inequality (in Japanese). The Studies in Economics and Trade 49: 61–78 Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of economics (9th ed.). Cengage Learning Malthus, R. T. (1798). An Essay on the Principles of Population. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Malthus, T. R. (2008). An essay on the principle of population. Oxford University Press. National Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Nigeria demographic and labour force report. NBS. Nuruddeen, H. D. and Badawaire, A. B. (2025). Population, inflation, and economic growth dynamics in Nigeria: A VAR and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach. International Journal of Innovative Mathematics, Statistics & Energy Policies, 12(2), 13-30. Romer PM (1986) Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy 94 (5): 1002 – 1037. Romer, P. (1994). Origins of endogenous growth Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8(1), P. 3-22. Todaro, M. P & Smith, S. C (2011) Economic Development (11th ed.); Addison-Wesley, London. Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2012). Economic development (11th ed.). New York, NY: Addison- Wesley. Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson. Ugwoke, T. I. and Onyenama, J. C. & Nwandu, R. & Ugwoke, A. C. (2024). Population growth and Nigerian economic growth: A critical appraisal. Madonna University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(6), 88 -99. World Bank (2018). World bank development indicator. Washington Dc, World Bank, USA. World Bank. (2024). World development indicators. World Bank Group. World Bank DataBank World Bank (2020). Nigeria Economic Outlook 2020. Washington Dc, World Bank, USA. World Bank open data. (2023). World Bank open data. https://data.worldbank.org/ World Bank. (2021). Population dynamics and economic growth in East Asia. World Development Report. World Bank. (2022). Harnessing the demographic dividend in Africa. World Bank Group. Worldometer (2020), United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision. (www.Worldometers.info)

More Articles from INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND MANAGEMENT RESEARCH