Does Foreign Direct Investment Spur Tax Revenue Mobilization? A Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) Versus a Non- Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) Analysis of the Nigerian Case

Alejo, J., Galvao, A., Montes-Rojas, G. M. & Sosa-Escudero, W. (2015). Tests for normality in linear panel-data models. The Stata Journal, 15 (3), 822–832 Amieye, A. I., & Jack, O. T. (2026). Tax Policy Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria. European Journal of Accounting, Finance and Investment, 11(1), 74–84. Ayalew, S., Babu, M. C. & Rao, L. K. M. (2012). Comparison of New Approach Criteria for Estimating the Order of Autoregressive Process. IOSR Journal of Mathematics 1(3) 10-20 Babatunde, M. A. (2018). Foreign direct investment and income inequality in Nigeria. Journal of Economic & Social Development, XIV (1), 1-24 Bayar, Y. & Ozturk, O. F. (2018). Impact of foreign direct investment inflows on tax revenues in OECD countries: A panel cointegration and causality analysis (1). Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXV (1), 31-40 Boly, A., Coulibaly, S., & Kéré, E. N. (2019). Tax Policy, Foreign Direct Investment and Spillover Effects (Working Paper Series No. 310). African Development Bank Group. Camara, A. (2019). Long run effects of foreign direct investment on tax revenue in developing countries. (n. p.), 1-35 Dietsch, P. (2015). Catching Capital: The ethics of tax competition. Oxford Publishers. DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190251512.001.0001 Egbadju, L. U. & Jacob, R. B. (2022). Corporate governance mechanisms and performance of quoted non-financial firms in Nigeria. International Journal of Intellectual Discourse , 5(4), 135-147. Egbadju, L. U. & Oriavwote, V. E. (2016). Value added tax and macroeconomic performance: A dynamic modeling of the Nigerian experience. European Journal of Business and Management,8(17), 49-59. Elias, E. M. (2025). Foreign Direct Investment and Public Revenue in Nigeria. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science , 9(15), 1007–1017. https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.915EC00726 Eneche, S. F., & Sukana, D. T. (2025). Fiscal Policy and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria. African Banking and Finance Review Journal , 20(7), 83-99. Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. (1987) Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276. Gaspareniene, L., Kliestik, T., Sivickiene, R., Remeikiene, R., & Endrijaitis, M. (2022b). Impact of foreign direct investment on tax revenue: The case of the European Union. Journal of Competitiveness, 14(1), 43–60 Gasparėnienė, T., Remeikienė R. & Šivickien R. (2022a). Impact of foreign direct investment on tax revenue. (n. p.), 99-112 Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic econometrics. McGraw-Hill Companies, New York Judijanto, L., Fakhriah, S., Guilin, X., Ladjin, N., & Rizani, A. (2024). The Effect of Income Tax Policy on Foreign Direct Investment: Panel Data Analysis in Developing Countries. Rechtsnormen Journal of Law, 2(2), 142–151. https://doi.org/10.55849/rjl.v2i2.858 Jemiluyi, O. O. & Jeke, L. (2023). Foreign direct investment and tax revenue mobilization in South Africa: An ARDL bound testing approach, Development Studies Research, 10(1),1-13. P-ISSN 2695-186X Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52, 169 – 210. Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vector in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models,” Econometrica, 59: 1551-1580. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford University Press: Oxford. Keen, M. & Konrad, K. A. (2013). The theory of international tax competition and coordination. Handbook of Public Economics, 5, 257-328. Keen, M. (2008). Tax competition, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Ed. Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume, Palgrave Macmillan Kusumaningtyas, R. O. & Kalimanzila, J. (2023). The impact of tax incentive on increase foreign direct investment. Journal of Sustainable Development and Regulatory Issues, 1(2), 51- 63 Kusumaningtyas, R. O. & Kalimanzila, J. (2023). The impact of tax incentive on increase foreign direct investment. Journal of Sustainable Development and Regulatory Issues, 1(2), 51- 63 Lütkepohl, H. (1993). Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Second Edition. Berlin, Springer-Verlag. Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Berlin, Germany: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Mahmood, H. & Chaudhary, A. R. (2013). Impact of FDI on tax revenue in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 7(1), 59-69 Mishra, P., Pandey, C. M., Singh, U., Gupta, A., Sahu, C., Keshri, A. (2019). Descriptive statistics and normality tests for statistical data. Annals of Cardiac Anaesthesia | Published by Wolters Kluwer - Medknow 22:67-72 Mutegi, L. M., Okiro, K. O., & Kisimbii, J. M. (2025). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Tax Revenue of East Africa Community Member Countries Under Liberalized Trade Environment. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 13(6),79–88. Nkoro, E. & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration technique: Application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4). 63-91 Nwankpa, L. O., & Ufomadu, O. A. (2024). Impact of Taxation on Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria (2000-2020). International Journal of Innovative Finance and Economics Research, 12(1), 143–155. Odabas, H. (2017). Foreign direct investment inflows on tax revenues in the transition economies of European Union. New Trends and Issues Proceedings on Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(2), 17- 22. Ogujiofor, M. N., Ozuomba, C. N., & Mark, T. (2025). The Impact of Corporate Tax Policies on Foreign Direct Investment . International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Management , 7(4), 563-569. https://doi.org/10.3386/ijaem.2025.0405 Omodero, C. O., & Yado, J. L. (2024). Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness on Tax Earnings: A Study of Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies. Economies, 12(12), 342. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12120342 P-ISSN 2695-186X Oyedele, T. (2023).President Tinubu Sets up Committee on Tax Reforms. Retrieved from: https://twitter.com/taiwoyedele/status/1677448615470432257 Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1995).An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to CointegrationAnalysis.Retrievedfrom: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4800254 Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the analysis of levels relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326. Pesaran, M.H. (1995) Planning and macroeconomic stabilisation in Iran, DAE Working Papers Amalgamated Series No. 9508, Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge University, Cambridge. Pratomo, A. W. (2019). The effect of foreign direct investment on tax revenue in developing countries (Master thesis. International Institute for Social Studies, The Hague, Netherlands) Quak, E. (2018). The impact of international tax competition on low and middle-income countries. K4D Helpdesk Report. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies. Salisu, A. A. (2015) Econometrics for researchers, Module IV.Centre for Econometrics and Allied Research Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, 281–314. Tabasam, F. (2018). Impact of foreign capital inflows on tax collection: a case study of Pakistan. J. Asian Dev. Stud, 7(3), 87-96 Talpoş, I. & Crâşneac, A. O. (2010). The effects of tax competition. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 8(549), 39-52. Tengku Razali, T. R. A., Masron, T. A., Kamarudin, M. H., Beleya, P., & Chelliah, M. K. (2025). Analysis of the impact of indirect taxation on foreign direct investment inflows in Malaysia: Implications for sustainable economic growth. Journal of Posthumanism, 5(5), 3810–3832. https://doi.org/10.63332/joph.v5i5.1822 Ugochukwu, M. J. & Azubike, J.U.B. (2016) “Value added tax and economic development in Nigeria”European Centrs for Research, Training and Development. 4(3) 1-10 Ukpe, W. (2023, June 1). Nigeria’s tax-to- GDP ratio rises to 10.86% – FIRS. Premium Times. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/promoted/601889-firs-nigerias-tax-to-gdp- ratio-rises-to- 10-86-as-at-2021.html WDI(2023).Foreign direct investment, net inflows. The World Bank.https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD WDI(2023). Tax revenue (% of GDP). The World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS