A Probability Analysis of Immigration and Refugees Situation in the African Continent

Abstract

Over the last decade, Africa has been bedeviled by a host of unsettling problems ranging from African Migration: most of which occurs within Africa, with East and West Africa being the worst culprits; Forced Displacement: conflicts, insecurity and oppressive regimes emanating from Lake Chad Basin, Central African Republic , Sudan and Nigeria leading to high numbers of Internally Displaced Persons and refugees; Wars, homicide and induced Religious terrorism and homicide in Democratic Republic of Congo , Sudan, Somalia, Central African Republic and Nigeria, which are significant sources of refugees, as well as Extra-Continental Migration due to education, unemployment and insecurity. These have taken their toll on the population of the continent resulting in mass migration and refugee status within Africa and beyond. While the major reasons for migration and refugee status within Africa may include, education, insecurity, conflicts and wars, political, ethnic and religious terrorism cum homicide and oppressive regimes, the major fallout of all the above is unemployment and hunger. This study is an attempt to analyze the situation of immigration and refugees in Africa using probability theory. The result confirms that East Africa, West Africa, especially Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa have a high probability of insecurity and thus immigration and refugees in the continent. This may not be unconnected with the level of unemployment, insecurity and oppressive political regimes in these sub-regions and Africa as a whole. It is recommended that African governments should endeavor to enshrine good governance and redress all vestiges of insecurity, poverty and unemployment in the continent while striving for Economic Independence and Self-Reliance of African nations. Key Words: Africa, Sub-region, Insecurity, Unemployment, Probability, Immigration, Refugees, Nigeria, Population and Unsettling problems.

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