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Assessing the Relationship Between Taxpayer Compliance and Tax Morale in Nigeria's Post-2025 Reforms

Mbanasor Christian Ph.D, Udeh Ejikeme Henry, Ngwobia, Ebubechukwu Udo

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of taxpayer compliance and tax morale in Nigeria amid the recent reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. Since taking office, the government has enacted four tax-reform bills that retain the Value Added Tax at 7.5 % while lowering corporate income tax for medium- and large-enterprises from 30 % to 25 % (Baba Martins et al. 2025). These measures aim to broaden the tax base, improve voluntary compliance, and signal a fair, transparent, and technology-driven tax system (Tinubu, 2025). However, Nigeria still faces low tax-to-GDP ratios and widespread perceptions of inequity (Alabi et al. 2024). A structured questionnaire with six sections was administered to 100 adult taxpayers; 84 fully completed responses (84 % response rate) were analyzed. The instrument measured demographic variables, self-reported compliance (? = 0.87), tax morale (? = 0.84), perceived fairness, trust in government, corruption perception, and awareness of the reforms. Data were coded, reverse-coded where needed, and examined using descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, Pearson correlations, and two ordinary-least-squares regression models. OLS results show that tax morale is the strongest predictor of compliance (? = 0.48, p < 0.001), followed by perceived fairness (? = 0.22, p = 0.008) and trust in government (? = 0.19, p = 0.022). Corruption perception negatively affects compliance (? = -0.15, p = 0.047). In the morale model, fairness (? = 0.35, p < 0.001), trust (? = 0.31, p < 0.001), and awareness of reforms (? = 0.18, p = 0.030) increase morale, while corruption reduces it (? = -0.22, p = 0.009). Diagnostic tests confirm model adequacy. All four hypotheses are supported: higher education and income relate positively to compliance; fairness and trust enhance morale; awareness of reforms boosts compliance; and corruption undermines both morale and compliance. The findings underscore the central role of tax morale and suggest that e

Keywords

tax compliancetax moraleNigeriaTinubu administrationtax reformsperceived fairnesstrustcorruptionOLS regression

References

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AON warns Nigerian airlines could collapse under Tinubu’s new tax policy. Vanguard. Field, A. (2013). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics (4th ed.). Sage. Javan Aseer. (2024, July 14). 7 tax reforms by Tinubu administrations that affect every Nigerian. Business Day. North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. Nunnally, J. C. (1978). Psychometric theory (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill. Oparada, P. (2025). Key changes as Tinubu finally signs 4 tax reform bills into law, analysts explain benefits. PwC. (2025). The Nigerian Tax Reform Acts: Top 20 changes to know. Rule of Law and Tax Compliance Behaviour in Nigeria: Does Tax Morale (2024). Department of Economics, University of Ibadan. Tinubu, B. A. (2025). National Tax Policy Implementation Committee announcement. Presidential Press Statement, June 26, 2025. Tinubu forms Tax Policy Committee to implement new tax laws in Nigeria. (2025). Business News. The Nigerian Tax Reform Acts 2025. (2025). SIAO. Torgler, B. (2002). Tax morale: Theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Economic Surveys, 16(3), 395-425. World Bank. (2024). Tax morale in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications. Questionnaire Here's a sample questionnaire on a 5-point Likert scale for the topic 'Taxpayer Compliance and Tax Morale in Nigeria': Section 1: Demographic Information (5 questions) 1. What is your age? 1. 18-24 2. 25-34 3. 35-44 4. 45-54 5. 55 and above 2. What is your occupation? 1. Employed 2. Self-employed 3. Business owner 4. Student 5. Other (please specify) 3. What is your level of education? 1. Secondary school 2. Diploma/NCE 3. Bachelor's degree 4. Master's degree 5. PhD and above 4. What is your income level? 1. Less than ?500,000 2. ?500,000-?1,000,000 3. ?1,000,000-?5,000,000 4. ?5,000,000-?10,000,000 5. More than ?10,000,000 5. Are you aware of recent tax policies in Nigeria? 1. Very aware 2. Somewhat aware 3. Not very aware 4. Not at all aware 5. Unsure Section 2: Tax Compliance (5 questions) (Scale: 1 = Strongly disagree, 5 = Strongly agree) 1. I always pay my taxes on time. 2. I believe that tax compliance is essential for the development of Nigeria. 3. I am willing to pay taxes because it is my civic duty. 4. I comply with tax laws and regulations to avoid penalties. 5. I believe that tax evasion is a serious offense. Section 3: Tax Morale (5 questions) (Scale: 1 = Strongly disagree, 5 = Strongly agree) 1. I feel guilty when I evade taxes. 2. I believe that paying taxes is a moral obligation. 3. I think that tax compliance is a social norm. 4. I feel proud when I pay my taxes on time. 5. I believe that tax morale is essential for the well-being of society. Section 4: Factors Influencing Tax Compliance (10 questions) (Scale: 1 = Strongly disagree, 5 = Strongly agree) 1. Tax rates influence my decision to comply with tax laws. 2. The complexity of tax laws affects my ability to comply. 3. The perceived fairness of the tax system influences my compliance. 4. The level of trust in government affects my willingness to pay taxes. 5. The effectiveness of tax authorities influences my compliance. 6. Penalties for tax evasion deter me from non-compliance. 7. Tax education and awareness programs improve my compliance. 8. The use of technology in tax administration makes compliance easier. 9. Corruption in government affects my willingness to pay taxes. 10. The perceived benefits of tax revenue influence my compliance. Section 5: Impact of Recent Tax Policies (5 questions) (Scale: 1 = Strongly disagree, 5 = Strongly agree) 1. Recent tax policies have improved tax compliance. 2. Recent tax policies have increased my tax burden. 3. Recent tax policies have simplified tax compliance. 4. Recent tax policies have increased transparency and accountability. 5. Recent tax policies have improved the overall tax system. Section 6: Suggestions for Improvement (5 questions) (Scale: 1 = Strongly disagree, 5 = Strongly agree) 1. Tax authorities should provide more education and awareness programs. 2. Tax laws should be simplified to improve compliance. 3. Tax rates should be reduced to increase compliance. 4. Tax authorities should increase transparency and accountability. 5. Taxpayers should have more input in tax policy decisions.