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Presidential Amnesty Programme {Pap} Cost and Economic Growth in Nigeria (2011-2024)

Baratuaipre Jacob Robert Ph.D, Yeibri Andrew

Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between the cost components of the Presidential Amnesty Programme and economic growth in Nigeria, as measured by Gross Domestic Product . Utilizing short-run regression analysis, the research examines the impact of annual budgetary allocation, administrative costs, monthly stipends, human capital development expenditure, and total PAP expenditure on Nigeria’s GDP. Findings reveal that budgetary allocation, human capital development, and total expenditure have significant positive effects on economic growth, while administrative costs negatively affect GDP. Monthly stipends showed a positive but statistically insignificant relationship with growth. These results highlight the importance of efficient resource allocation and investment in human capital to maximize the economic benefits of PAP. The study recommends policy reforms aimed at reducing administrative inefficiencies and shifting focus from stipend payments to capacity-building initiatives. Comparative analysis with similar post-conflict reintegration programmes globally underscores the potential of well-managed amnesty programmes to contribute to sustainable national development. This research contributes to the understanding of how targeted government expenditure in conflict resolution can influence macroeconomic performance, providing valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in post-conflict economic reconstruction.

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