Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Listed Stocks' Price Movement: Evidence from the Nigerian Capital Market

Isibor Areghan PhD; Akanbi Jonathan Adetoyese

doi:10.56201/ijbfr.vol.11.no9.2025.pg154.161

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Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Listed Stocks' Price Movement: Evidence from the Nigerian Capital Market

Isibor Areghan PhD, Akanbi Jonathan Adetoyese

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of key macroeconomic indicators on the price movements of listed stocks in the Nigerian capital market, using the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) as the proxy for stock price movement. Drawing on quarterly data from 2013 to 2023, the study focused on inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Using multiple regression analysis, the findings revealed a strong collective impact (R-squared = 0.78) and a significant long-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators and stock prices. Specifically, the exchange rate and GDP growth rate were found to have a statistically significant positive effect on the ASI (p=0.0001 and p=0.0012, respectively). Inflation and interest rates showed negative but statistically insignificant impacts. The study concluded that exchange rate and GDP growth are major drivers of stock price movements, supporting the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. It recommends that policymakers implement consistent and stable macroeconomic policies and that investors should monitor GDP growth and exchange rate movements as predictors of market performance.

Keywords

Macroeconomic indicatorsStock price movementNigerian capital marketExchange rateInflationGDPInterest rateNGX ASI

References

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Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Listed Stocks' Price Movement: Evidence from the Nigerian Capital Market

Abstract

Keywords

References

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