Optimal Control of the Nigerian Economy Under Extant Paradigm: Implications and Consequences

Rex Oforitse ARUOFOR; PhD; Daniel Risiagbon OGBEIDE; PhD

doi:10.56201/ijssmr.vol.11no10.2025.pg430.453

📄 Download Paper

Optimal Control of the Nigerian Economy Under Extant Paradigm: Implications and Consequences

Rex Oforitse ARUOFOR, PhD, Daniel Risiagbon OGBEIDE, PhD

Abstract

In most of our previous studies of the Nigerian economy, persistent recommendations have been made for Government to transform the economic and industrial landscape of the entire country by investing in infrastructure, manufacturing, electricity generation, transmission and distribution, services, construction, including factories and industries as well as creating the right environment for Private Sector-led investments. This study is an attempt to test the above hypothesis. A full blown model of the Nigerian economy was formulated and used to optimally control the economy under existing paradigm with a view to test if the economy will optimally grow and develop with poverty and hunger reducing on the one hand, and the implications and consequences for investments with impact on the citizens, on the other hand. Using the total differential systems modeling approach, linear programming and optimal control analysis, the result rejects the null hypothesis and upholds the alternative hypothesis because optimal control under the extant paradigm of the Nigerian economy will only result in a superficial development of the economy. Aggregate demand and supply, Crop and Fishery production and food security may improve considerably and produce a superficial growth and a false sense of welfare while the level of inflation, corruption and poverty will remain a major source of concern while sectoral investments will slump across board except in Crops and Fishery. Though people will invest and be employed in agricultural crop production and fishing and the problems of hunger and insecurity may be drastically reduced, the Nigerian economy will be largely impoverished, with corruption skyrocketing except Government heeds the persistent recommendations of our previous studies of the Nigerian economy.

Keywords

Total differential systems modeling approachLinear programmingOptimal Control AnalysisSectoral investmentsPovertyHungerGrowth and Welfare indicators.

References

Adeyoju, S. K. (1975). Forestry and the Nigerian economy. Ibadan University Press, Nigeria. Aruofor, R. O. (2001). Economic Systems Engineering: An Essay in quantitative models and methods for development planning.Thy Kingdom Press (Subsidiary of Systemod NigeriaLtd.), Miscellaneous Publishers, Sapele, Nigeria, 2001. Aruofor, R. O. (2017). Economic Systems Engineering, Poverty, Unemployment and Under- Development: A Quest for Solution and Imperatives for Developing the Nigerian Economy. In Proceedings of the 6th Inaugural Lecture Series, Benson Idahosa University, March 6. Aruofor, R. O. and Okungbowa, E. Flourence (2018). Estimating the Real Impact of Devaluation on an Economy: The Case of the Naira. The Indian Journal of Economics. Vol XCVIII, No. 390 Part III pp 343-360, ISSN 0019-5170, Jan.2018. Aruofor, R. O. K. (2020a). Economic Systems Engineering: Modeling And Applied Quantitative techniques For Economic And Development Planning. Amazon Books, ISBN:9798689936024 Aruofor, R. O. K. (2020b): EPILOGUE TO ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ENGINEERING: The Religious Angle and the Good News.Amazon Books, ISBN: 9798554307843 Aruofor, R. O. and Ogbeide, D. R, (2020): Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of Corruption on Nigeria’s New Democratic Governance. Aruofor, R. O. and Ogbeide, D. R, (2024g): Analysis of the Impact of Taxation on A Nation’s Citizenry: The Implications of Maximizing Tax Revenue Under Nigeria’s Extant Paradigm. CBN (2017). Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Abuja. CBN (2018). Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Abuja. CBN (2019). Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Abuja. CBN (2021). Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Abuja. Duesenberry, J. S, Fromm, G, Klein, L. R and Kuh, E. eds, (1965). The Brookings: Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States Economy, Chicago; Rand McNally, 1965. Gordon, R. J. (1968): The Brookings Model in Action: A Review Article. Journal of Political Economy, pp 489-525. Koutsoyiannis, A.( 1977): Theory of econometrics. The Macmillan Press Ltd., London and Basingstoke. Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Stolper, W. F.(1966):Planning without facts. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachussetts.

Optimal Control of the Nigerian Economy Under Extant Paradigm: Implications and Consequences

Abstract

Keywords

References

More Articles from INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND MANAGEMENT RESEARCH