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Fiscal Policy and the Performance of the Nigerian Economy

Abebe Isaiah Tete, Peter, E Ayunku

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the Nigerian economy from 1987 to 2023 using an ex-post facto research design. Secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, 2023, was analyzed with the E-views statistical package. Independent variables included total government expenditure, revenue, borrowing, and debt servicing costs, measured against the dependent variable, gross domestic product (GDP). Unit root tests showed all variables integrated at order (1). Johansen cointegration tests confirmed long-run relationships among the variables, and the error correction model indicated that total government expenditure has a negative and insignificant impact on the GDP of the Nigerian economy. Total government borrowing had a positive and significant impact on GDP. Total government revenue showed a positive but insignificant impact, while debt servicing costs were also positively significant. The study concludes that fiscal policy significantly influences economic performance in Nigeria. Recommendations to enhance economic performance include improving revenue utilization efficiency through stringent fiscal responsibility, prioritizing capital expenditure over recurrent spending, ensuring prudent borrowing with effective debt management, and adopting strategic debt servicing plans. These measures aim to maximize the economic benefits of fiscal policy and foster sustained economic growth.

Keywords

GovernmentFiscal PolicyEconomic Growthgovernment revenuegross

References

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APPENDIX I: Data of Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance in Nigeria YEAR Government Revenue (?,Bill) Government Expenditure (?,Bill) Government Borrowing (?,Bill) Debt Servicing (?,Bill) Real Gross Domestic Product (?,Bill) 1987 25.4 22.0 36.79 3.93 244.68 1988 27.6 27.7 47.03 9.24 315.62 1989 53.9 41.0 47.05 13.27 414.86 1990 98.1 60.3 84.09 23.82 494.64 1991 101.0 66.6 116.2 26.41 590.06 1992 190.5 92.8 177.96 19.40 906.03 1993 192.8 191.2 273.84 81.08 1,257.17 1994 201.9 160.9 407.58 49.40 1,768.79 1995 460.0 248.8 477.73 51.06 3,100.24 1996 523.6 337.2 419.98 42.96 4,086.07 1997 582.8 428.2 501.75 68.54 4,418.71 1998 463.6 487.1 560.83 64.39 4,805.16 1999 949.2 947.7 794.81 30.84 5,482.35 2000 1,906.2 701.1 898.25 131.05 7,062.75 2001 2,231.6 1,018.0 1,016.97 155.42 8,234.49 2002 1,731.8 1,018.2 1,166.00 163.81 11,501.45 2003 2,575.1 1,226.0 1,329.68 363.51 13,556.97 2004 3,920.5 1,504.2 1,370.33 382.5 18,124.06 2005 5,547.5 1,919.7 1,525.91 393.95 23,121.88 2006 5,965.1 2,038.0 1,753.26 249.33 30,375.18 2007 5,727.5 2,450.9 2,169.64 213.73 34,675.94 2008 7,866.6 3,240.8 2,320.31 381.2 39,954.21 2009 4,844.6 3,453.0 3,228.03 251.79 43,461.46 2010 7,303.7 4,194.6 4,551.82 415.56 55,469.35 2011 11,116.8 4,712.1 5,622.84 527.18 63,713.36 2012 10,654.7 4,605.3 6,537.54 679.30 72,599.63 2013 9,759.8 5,185.3 7,118.98 828.10 81,009.96 2014 10,068.9 4,587.4 7,904.03 941.7 90,136.98 2015 6,912.5 4,988.9 8,837.00 1,060.38 95,177.74 2016 5,616.4 5,858.6 11,058.20 1,426.00 102,575.42 2017 7,444.8 6,456.7 12,578.80 1,823.89 114,899.25 2018 9,551.7 7,813.7 12,774.40 2,161.37 129,086.91 2019 10,262.3 9,714.6 14,272.64 2,454.07 145,639.14 2020 9,276.1 10,231.7 16,023.89 3,265.47 154,252.32 2021 10,755.4 12,164.1 35,097.79 3300.56 176,075.50 2022 12,586.5 24,431.21 40,912.61 4,442.21 182,025.40 2023 14,324.7 28,534.8 44,514.23 5,303.2 193,223.20 Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, 2023

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