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The Effect of Agricultural Productivity on Households’ Welfare in Nigeria

Ojiya, EA, Ornan, NF, Amadi, KW, Enganya Samaila, Danjuma, C, Nev, SA, Mamman AB

Abstract

This study examined the effect of agricultural productivity on households’ welfare in Nigeria between 1999 to 2024, using time series econometric techniques for its analysis. The Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root results revealed that all variables were stationary either at their level forms or first difference, with the evidence of a unique longrun equilibrium relationship between the variables included in the model. It was also revealed that agricultural expenditure and food inflation exerted significant influence on the dependent variable (households’ welfare). This implies that government spending on the sector is the only reliable indices towards improving output growth in the sector for enhanced welfare. Unfortunately, the inverse relationship between government spending and agricultural productivity was an indication that government investment in the sector over the decades had bored no tangible or substantial results in changing the narrative in that sector. This negative correlation is further bolstered by the inverse relationship between agricultural output and the dependent variable during the quarters examined. It was also found that households’ income or funds at the disposal of the various households was too meagre to cause a positive change to sustainable agricultural engagement and hence their living standards. Flowing from the foregoing, the study concluded that agricultural productivity in Nigeria between 1999 to 2024 had no positive influence on households’ welfare; and as a consequence, the following are recommended for policy implementation. Firstly, that the Nigerian government should inject more funding into the sector for enhanced growth towards improved households’ welfare; secondly, that the government should create formal employment opportunities and income-generating activities for all qualified Nigerians to aid them in their engagement in the sector towards improved welfare; and finally, that the

Keywords

Agricultural productivity; Households’ welfare; ARDL; Households’ income;

References

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