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Distress-Driven Displacement and Economic Contraction: Quantifying the Impact of Armed Banditry on Youth Agribusiness Livelihoods in North-West Nigeria

Halilu, H., Gindi, A.A., Gona, A., Ibrahim, S., Kaka, Y., Hassan S.U. and, Nakwaine, L.M.

Abstract

Armed banditry in North-West Nigeria has severely disrupted rural agrarian economies, yet the precise econometric quantification of its impact on youth agribusiness livelihoods and migration dynamics remains underexplored. This study evaluates the economic contraction and distress- driven displacement among 424 youth agripreneurs in Zamfara State, Nigeria. Utilizing a multi- stage sampling technique, data were collected on socioeconomic characteristics, agribusiness income trajectories, and migration determinants. Analytical techniques included paired samples t-tests and multiple linear regression . Results indicate a catastrophic decline in average monthly agribusiness income, falling from ₦2,823,113 before the escalation of banditry to ₦2,206,367 post-escalation (p < 0.001). The MLR model demonstrated robust explanatory power (R2 = 0.641, F = 123.866, p < 0.001), revealing that direct exposure to violence (β = 0.411) and fear-induced market access constraints (β = 0.308) are the primary drivers of youth displacement, outweighing pure financial losses. The findings confirm that youth migration in this context is not an aspirational economic shift but a distress-driven survival strategy triggered by value-chain fragmentation and physical insecurity. These results underscore the urgent need for integrated security-agricultural policies that prioritize physical safety and market access restoration over standalone financial subsidies to sustain rural youth livelihoods in conflict-affected agrarian systems.

Keywords

Armed banditry; Agribusiness; Livelihoods; Migration dynamics and Displacement

References

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