Insecurity and Political Orientation: Interrogating the Impact of Herdsmen Invasions on Political Themes in Benue State
Abstract
This study examined the impact of herdsmen invasions on political orientation and political themes in Benue State, Nigeria. Specifically, it examined the patterns of invasions, assessed their influence on political orientation and trust in government institutions, investigated their effects on political campaign narratives and policy priorities, and examined their influence on voter behaviour. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted. The study focused on five conflict-affected Local Government Areas Guma, Gwer West, Logo, Agatu and Kwande with 600 respondents selected through a multi-stage sampling technique. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analysed using descriptive statistics and multiple regression at the 0.05 significance level. The findings revealed that insecurity exposure significantly influenced political orientation (β = .391, p < .001), reduced trust in government institutions (β = −.451, p < .001), significantly shaped campaign narratives and policy priorities (β = .467, p < .001), and significantly affected voter behaviour (β = .251, p < .001). All four null hypotheses were therefore rejected. The study concludes that herdsmen invasions have consequences extending beyond human security and livelihoods to political attitudes, institutional trust and electoral behaviour. It recommends stronger security measures, responsive governance, issue-based political campaigns, voter education, conflict prevention and livelihood restoration to promote democratic stability and development in Benue State.
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