Assessing the Early Warning-Response Gap in Ecowas Conflict Prevention, 2010-2025

Abstract

This article interrogates the persistent disconnect between early warning capacity and timely conflict response within the Economic Community of West African States from 2010 to 2025. Despite the establishment of the ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network (ECOWARN) as the central pillar of the ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework of 2008, the sub-region witnessed a cascade of unconstitutional changes of government in Mali (2020, 2021), Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023), culminating in the historic withdrawal of three ECOWAS member states from the organisation in January 2025. The article draws on qualitative data from twenty-five semi-structured interviews conducted at ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja, as well as thematic documentary analysis of ECOWAS institutional reports, peace fund strategic plans, and current scholarship. Grounded in Regional Integration Theory and Conflict Prevention Theory, the article identifies three structural drivers of the warning–response gap: weak political will among member states; chronic financing deficits and donor dependency; and bureaucratic fragmentation within the ECOWAS institutional architecture. The article further finds that while ECOWARN's detection capabilities are technically mature—covering 55 pre-defined indicators and 42 event types—the system's outputs are routinely treated as advisory rather than action-triggering by member state governments. The article concludes by proposing a Mandatory Response-Trigger Framework, a pre-funded Early Response Reserve, and a Community-Based Early Warning Integration Initiative as concrete measures to close the warning–response gap. The findings carry significant implications for the broader literature on regional early warning systems and for ECOWAS's credibility as a regional security actor at a critical juncture. E-ISSN 2504-883X P-ISSN 2695 2432

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