Modelling and Simulation of the Effect of Solar Intensity on the Quality of Potable Packaged Water

Abbas Usman; Abdullahi Ibrahim; Abdullahi S Zayyan; Ibrahim Yakubu; Gotip H Bege5

doi:10.56201/ijemt.vol.12.no7.2026.pg140.150

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Modelling and Simulation of the Effect of Solar Intensity on the Quality of Potable Packaged Water

Abbas Usman, Abdullahi Ibrahim, Abdullahi S Zayyan, Ibrahim Yakubu, and, Gotip H Bege5

Abstract

Prolonged exposure of sachet and bottled packaged water to solar intensity during storage and distribution is a common practice in tropical, high-temperature settings such as Nigeria, raising concerns about consequent water quality deterioration. This study developed and validated computational models capable of predicting changes in packaged water quality as a function of cumulative solar intensity, using secondary experimental data collected over a twelve-week exposure period (average daily solar intensity of 14.55 MJ/m2) at Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria. First-order kinetic models were fitted to the numerical physicochemical parameters (pH, residual chlorine, and colour), while a logistic (S-curve) function was used to model the non- numerical organoleptic parameters (odour and taste). The average first-order rate constants (K) obtained ranged from 1.03 × 10−10 to 6.87 × 10−10 for sachet water and from 5.98 × 10−11 to 2.64 × 10−10 for bottled water, while a common logistic growth-rate constant of k = 0.005 described the degradation of both odour and taste. Model performance, evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error , yielded average accuracies of 94.73%, 71.14%, 90.57%, 85.38%, and 80.12% for pH, residual chlorine, colour, odour, and taste, respectively. Sachet water was found to be considerably more susceptible to degradation than bottled water, particularly for residual chlorine, which declined to as low as 0.02 mg/L, close to the threshold at which secondary microbial contamination becomes a risk. Taste and odour transitioned progressively from "neutral" through "polymeric" to "relatively pungent" with increasing cumulative solar energy dose, even though pH, colour, and microbial indicators remained within World Health Organization permissible limits throughout the study. The models developed provide a low-cost, laboratory-independent tool for estimating packaged water quality degradation under any given solar intensity and exposure duration, offering practical value to regulators, distributors, and consumers in tropical regions.

Keywords

solar intensity; packaged water quality; first-order kinetics; logistic model; sachet water; MAPE

References

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Modelling and Simulation of the Effect of Solar Intensity on the Quality of Potable Packaged Water

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