Carbon Density and Ecological Resilience in Sudan Savanna: A Composite Ecosystem Stability Index (CESI) Approach

Mansur M.A; Abdulrahman; Atiku; Ambursa; A.S; M.A. Augie; Salisu; I.A; H.K. Wele; Corresponding Author; ORCID ID ---

doi:10.56201/ijgem.vol.12.no5.2026.pg376.382

Carbon Density and Ecological Resilience in Sudan Savanna: A Composite Ecosystem Stability Index (CESI) Approach

Mansur M.A, ., Abdulrahman, A, ., Atiku, M, ., Ambursa, A.S, ., M.A. Augie, Salisu, I.A, ., and H.K. Wele, Corresponding Author, ORCID ID ---

Abstract

Climate mitigation measures have mostly focused on carbon density, frequently neglecting the ecological stability necessary for sustained sequestration. This separation poses a danger of maladaptive land management in semi-arid environments. This work presents and implements a Composite Ecosystem Stability Index across four land use/land cover categories in Kebbi State, Nigeria, incorporating species diversity, structural complexity, carbon persistence, soil organic carbon stability, and degradation resistance. CESI was calculated using normalized indicator values, equal weighting confirmed using principal component analysis, and calibrated thresholds over 160 field plots. CESI scores varied from 0.40 (bare land) to 0.70 (farmland/built environment), indicating a significant disconnection between carbon maximizing and ecological stability. Plantations, while sequestering significant carbon (132.7–297.7 t C ha−1), demonstrated moderate Carbon Ecosystem Service Index values (0.54–0.65) owing to the prevalence of monoculture and little biodiversity resilience. In contrast, agricultural lands and urban regions attained greater stability (0.56–0.70) by species diversification, consistent soil carbon levels, and structural variety, while possessing smaller absolute carbon reserves. Bareland regularly had the lowest stability, ranging from 0.40 to 0.48. The decoupling of carbon stability was statistically significant (r = -0.31, p < 0.05). The CESI framework contests carbon-focused restoration models and offers a policy-ready indicator for reconciling sequestration objectives with ecological resilience. Incorporating CESI into land-use planning and climate accounting helps avert maladaptive monoculture practices and foster biodiversity-integrated, climate-smart management.

Keywords

Ecosystem stabilitycarbon trade-offscomposite indexland degradationsavanna resilienceclimate adaptationecological monitoring

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Carbon Density and Ecological Resilience in Sudan Savanna: A Composite Ecosystem Stability Index (CESI) Approach

Abstract

Keywords

References

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