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Simulating the Discharge of the River Benue Using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2)

Agamah Alex Unubi, Udochukwu M.O, Enokela O.S

Abstract

This study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to estimate discharge from River Benue at reach of Makurdi using sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2). Data on streanflow at upstream and downstream section of the river were colleted from Janury – December of 2019- 2020 for calibration of the discharge and were validated from 1988-2017. Model evaluation metrics demonstrated strong predictive performance, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.87 and 0.88 during validation, indicating high model accuracy. Percent Bias values were low, ranging from 13.6 to 15.6 across calibration and validation phases, reflecting close alignment between simulated and observed data. Additionally, Coefficient of Determination (R2) values were notably high, with sub-basin 29 achieving 0.99 during validation, underscoring the model’s reliability. These findings confirm the SWAT model's robustness in simulating flow dynamics, highlighting average slope length and soil conductivity as key hydrological drivers in Makurdi. This study provides a reliable framework for discharge modeling, offering valuable insights for sustainable water resource management and flood mitigation in the region.

Keywords

SWAT modelRiver Benue watershedSequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2)Discharge

References

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