Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics of Tertiary Institutions as Growth Poles in Zaria Urban Area, Nigeria

data. The confusion matrix shows that the classification accuracy assessment yielded an overall accuracy of 85.50% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.81. The Kappa statistic indicates almost perfect agreement between the classified imagery and reference data, suggesting that the LULC classification outputs are statistically reliable and suitable for subsequent spatial change analysis. 2.3 Data Analysis The analysis adopted the exponential growth analytical model in Table 2.3. The exponential growth model explains how a quantity increases over time as the rate of growth is proportional to the current size of the quantity. This means that as the quantity grows larger the size grows faster. Table 2.3: Analytical Methods and Formulae Used in the Study Analysis Type Formula Description of Variables Land Use Change Rate (%) (A2 − A1) / A1 × 100 A1 = Initial Area; A2 = Final Area Annual Growth Rate (A2 − A1) / n n = Number of Years Growth Intensity Index Institutional Rate / Urban Rate Measures relative growth strength Percentage Contribution Institutional Change / Total Urban Change × 100 Measures institutional share Source: Adapted from Standard Urban Growth Models (2024). Where: • = annual growth rate • = area at initial time • = area later • = number of years between the two dates Results and Findings 3.1 The Spatial Distribution of Tertiary Institutions in Zaria Urban Area In Figure 3.1, the study shows that the Zaria urban area is endowed with 23 tertiary institutions, with privately owned and corporate institutions constituting 47.83%, while publicly owned constituting 52.17%, as confirmed by Bashir & Gana (2021) and Bada &Adediran (2023). The institutions are clustered around the city’s main regions and spread along major road corridors, especially the Samaru-Sokoto, Old Jos Road, and Kaduna – Kano Road, as posited by Amos & Ahmed (2021). However, the single largest campus of Ahmadu Bello University and Nuhu Bamali Polytechnic dominate land use in Samaru-Kongo, Gaskiya/Tudun Wada, and Kaduna IIARD International Journal of Geography & Environmental Management Zaria roads, respectively, and serve as an anchor pole for other infrastructure, housing, economic, socio-cultural, and environmental delivery, which was also highlighted by Ajayi & Afolabi (2017) and Aliyu & Ayoade (2020). The Table 3.1, shows that the 23 tertiary institutions in the study area include a University, Polytechnic and Colleges of Education with 2 Colleges of Agriculture and Other Related Disciplines , 6 Colleges of Health Sciences and Technology , 5 Specialized Tertiary Institutions , 2 Innovation Enterprise Institutions , and 3 Vocational Enterprise Institutions {Abdullahi, & Bello, 2020; Abiodun & Olawale, 2021}. However, COHSTs, STIs, and VEIs constituted the highest volume with 26.09%, 21.74%, and 13.02%, indicating that the institutions have the highest volume distributed within the urban area. Nevertheless, IEIs, COAORD, University, and Polytechnic contribute 8.70% each to the volume, while the College of Education has the least volume distributed with 4.35% in the area. Source: Field Survey (2024) Figure 5: Spatial Zones in the Distribution of the Tertiary Institutions in ZUA Table 3.1: The Distribution of Tertiary Institutions in the Zaria Area Types of Tertiary Institutions Number in Space % Universities 2 8.70 Polytechnics 2 8.70 Colleges of Education 1 4.35 Colleges of Agriculture and Other Related Disciplines 2 8.70 Colleges of Health Sciences Technology 6 26.09 Specialized Tertiary Institutions STIs 5 21.74 Innovation Enterprise Institutions 2 8.70 Vocational Enterprise Institutions 3 13.02 Total 23 100.00 Source: Field Survey (2024) Source: Field Survey (2024) Figure 3.2a: Land Use and Land Cover Map of Institutional Land in 1964 IIARD International Journal of Geography & Environmental Management Source: Field Survey (2024) Figure 3.2b: Land Use and Land Cover Map of Institutional Land in 1984 Source: Field Survey (2024) Figure 3.2c: Land Use and Land Cover Map of Institutional Land in 2004 Source: Field Survey (2024) Figure 3.2d: Land Use and Land Cover Map of Institutional Land in 2024 3.2 The Dynamics of Land Cover Acquisition of Tertiary Institutions in Zaria The study, as shown in Figures 3.2a to 3.2d and Table 3.2, shows a significant growth of land cover associated with tertiary institutions in an urban area from 1924 to 2024. Built-up land increased from 16.54 hectares to 3,614.52 hectares, reflecting a remarkable 21,853.20% rise, while institutional vegetation and agriculture faced a corresponding decline. The study highlighted that since 1924, institutions have acquired 10,825.22 hectares, which constitutes 98.47% of their landholdings, demonstrating extensive institutional expansion. Major contributors to this growth included Ahmadu Bello University, with 62.49% of land growth, and Nuhu Bamalli Polytechnic, accounting for 17.96% during the formative periods. After a period of consolidation from 1964 to 1984, growth slowed but surged again from 2004 to 2024 due to expanding institutions. The average annual land acquisition rate was approximately 212.41 hectares, which emphasizes the sustained dominance of Nuhu Bamalli Polytechnic and Ahmadu Bello University in the urban landscape. IIARD International Journal of Geography & Environmental Management Table 3.2: The Dynamics of Land Cover Acquisition of Tertiary Institutions in ZUA Tertiary Institutions Changing Rate in the Land Cover Growth Patterns (ha) Total Change Rate % of Total Change Rate Annual Change Rate of the Growth Pattern 1944 - 1924 1964 - 1944 1984 - 1964 2004 - 1984 2024 - 2004 1924 - 2024 1924 - 2024 1924 - 2024 Ahmadu Bello University 00 1338.61 5,432.62 00 00 6,771.23 62.49 60.82 Nuhu Bamali Polytechnic 00 00 00 161.65 1,784.95 1,946.60 17.96 97.33 Federal Colleges of Education 00 80.80 477.90 00 11.10 569.80 5.26 9.19 Colleges of Agriculture and Other Related Disciplines (COAORDs) 46.59 110.58 00 112.34 00 269.51 2.49 2.70 Colleges of Health Sciences 00 00 00 196.28 23.17 219.45 2.02 10.97 Specialized Tertiary Institutions 00 233.08 376.34 48.69 98.68 756.79 6.98 12.21 Innovative Enterprise Institutions 00 00 00 00 107.67 107.67 1.00 8.97 Vocational Enterprise Institutions 00 00 76.99 64.90 52.28 194.17 1.80 10.22 Total Trend of the Land Cover Acquired 110.58 1,652.49 6,363.85 583.86 2,065.85 10,825.22 100 212.41 Source: Field Survey (2024) 3.3 The Dynamics of the Built-up Cover of the Tertiary Institutions In the study highlighted in Figures 3.2a to 3.2d and Table 3.3, the study demonstrated that no tertiary institution has fully utilized its acquired land, indicating a strategic approach to land acquisition for future expansion, as noted by Bello & Adebisi (2014) and Biyela (2021). A total of 10,825.22 hectares were acquired, with only 3,614.52 hectares (32.88%) developed, emphasizing substantial potential for growth since most development occurred between 1924 and 1964, particularly through initial establishments like Ahmadu Bello University. The growth trend continued until 1984 but shifted focus towards program-specific expansions in later years, driven by various institutions, showing an average annual development rate of 82.59 hectares, or 2.29% per year over the century, as detailed by several researchers, including Atuk (2020) and Robinson (2006). Table 3.3: The Dynamics of the Built-up Cover of the Tertiary Institutions Tertiary Institutions Changing Rate in the Built-up Cover Growth Patterns (ha) Total Change Rate of the Built-up Cover % of Total Change Rate of the Built- up Cover Annual Change Rate of the Growth Pattern 1944 - 1924 1964 - 1944 1984 - 1964 2004 - 1984 2024 - 2004 1924 - 2024 1924 - 2024 1924 - 2024 Ahmadu Bello University 00 93.00 1,152.61 338.22 262.59 1,846.42 51.24 29.78 Nuhu Bamali Polytechnic 00 00 00 161.65 849.74 1,011.39 28.07 40.46 IIARD International Journal of Geography & Environmental Management Federal Colleges of Education 00 159.65 44.52 47.23 101.22 352.62 9.78 5.69 Colleges of Agriculture and Other Related Disciplines (COAORDs) 16.54 4.68 4.60 6.29 24.28 56.39 1.56 0.56 Colleges of Health Sciences 00 00 00 84.98 29.39 114.37 3.17 4.57 Specialized Tertiary Institutions 00 85.19 23.24 18.60 30.12 157.15 4.36 2.53 Innovation Enterprise Institutions 00 00 00 00 20.66 20.66 0.57 1.03 Vocational Enterprise Institutions 00 00 24.66 7.24 12.66 44.56 1.25 0.86 Total Trend Pattern of the Built-up Cover 16.54 342.52 1,249.63 664.21 1,330.66 3,603.56 100 82.59 Source: Field Survey (2024) 3.4 The Dynamics of the Land Use Cover of the Built-up Area of the Tertiary Institution Also, in Figures 3.2a to 3.2d and Table 3.4 presents the dynamics of land use within the built-up areas of tertiary institutions in Zaria Urban Area. The study categorized institutional land use into residential, administrative, academic, commercial, circulation, and other institutional uses, as noted by Abbas & Arigbede (2016) and Hassan & Ibrahim (2024). The expansion encompasses 3,305.79 hectares, accounting for 91.46% of total built-up growth since 1924, primarily between 1924 and 1964. Early residential development dominated this expansion, corresponding to the establishment of significant institutions like Ahmadu Bello University. From 1964 to 1984, growth was consolidatory, adding 1,199.69 hectares with existing institutions expanding and new ones like NITT emerging. Subsequent periods, particularly 1984-2024, saw moderate growth driven by specialized institutions, averaging an annual increase of 33.06 hectares, with residential and circulation uses leading the growth while administrative and commercial uses lagged. Table 3.4: The Dynamics of Land Use Cover of the Built-up Area of the Tertiary Institution Land Uses Changing Rate in the Land Use Growth Patterns (ha) Total Change Rate in the Land Use Growth % of the Change Rate in the Growth Pattern Annual Change Rate of the Growth Pattern 1944 - 1924 1964 - 1944 1984 - 1964 2004 - 1984 2024 - 2004 1924 - 2024 1924 - 2024 1924 - 2024 Residential Area 52.63 213.06 701.79 82.49 76.57 1,126.54 34.08 11.26 Administrative Area 24.82 21.12 61.39 29.81 31.05 168.19 5.09 1.68 Academic Buildings 14.54 40.17 236.68 62.53 25.06 378.98 11.46 3.79 Commercial Area 2.95 6.43 20.64 5.09 6.29 41.40 1.25 0.41 Circulations 44.19 152.91 372.94 75.75 36.83 682.62 20.65 6.83 Other Uses 40.48 217.40 457.34 30.69 162.15 908.06 27.47 9.08 Total Trend of Land Use Cover of the Built- up Area 179.61 651.09 1,850.78 286.36 337.95 3,305.79 100.00 33.05 Source: Field Survey (2024) IIARD International Journal of Geography & Environmental Management 3.5 Discussion of Findings The findings confirm that tertiary institutions play a significant role in shaping urban spatial development. The large‐scale acquisition of land by universities reflects long‐term campus planning strategies and future expansion needs (Smyth, 2023). Similar studies have shown that university campuses often stimulate infrastructure development and land transformation in surrounding areas (Dixon, 2022; Biyela, 2021). These results therefore support the propositions of Growth Pole Theory, which emphasises the role of dominant institutions in generating spatial and economic development (Perroux, 1955; Bourdeville, 1966). Summary, Conclusion, and Recommendations 4.1 Summary At the end of the study, the research shows that the Zaria urban area is endowed with 23 tertiary institutions, with privately owned and corporate institutions constituting 47.83%, while publicly owned constituting 52.17%, as confirmed by Bashir & Gana (2021) and Bada &Adediran (2023). Built-up land increased from 16.54 hectares to 3,614.52 hectares, reflecting a remarkable 21,853.20% rise, while institutional vegetation and agriculture faced a corresponding decline. The study also highlighted that since 1924, institutions have acquired 10,825.22 hectares, which constitutes 98.47% of their landholdings, demonstrating extensive institutional expansion over 100 years. However, the Land Use Cover of the Built-up Area of the Tertiary Institution with residential development dominated this expansion, corresponding to the establishment of significant institutions like Ahmadu Bello University. From 1964 to 1984, growth was consolidatory, adding 1,199.69 hectares with existing institutions expanding and new ones like NITT emerging. Subsequent periods, particularly 1984-2024, saw moderate growth driven by specialized institutions, averaging an annual increase of 33.06 hectares, with residential and circulation uses leading the growth while administrative and commercial uses lagged. 4.2 Conclusion This study demonstrates that tertiary institutions act as major growth poles influencing land acquisition, infrastructure development, and spatial expansion in the Zaria Urban Area. Effective land‐use planning policies are therefore necessary to ensure sustainable institutional expansion. 4.3 Recommendations 1. KADSUPDA should develop institutional land‐use planning frameworks to regulate and designate how land is utilized to meet social, economic, and environmental goals. 2. Strengthening collaboration between Kaduna State Urban Planning and Development 3. Authority and tertiary institutions to monitor and regulate urban development associated with tertiary institutions. 4. 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