A Multinomial Logit Analysis of Factors Influencing the Choice of Cropping Pattern Among Dry Season Vegetable Farmers in Southwest, Nigeria

group or the farming system category selected as the base (Ojo et al., 2013). Table 5: Multinomial Logit Estimations Factors Influencing Choice of Cropping Pattern among Wetlands Vegetable Farmers. Explanatory variables Dependent variables 1 Amaranthus/ Celosia/ Corchorus 2 Amaranthus/ Corchorus 3 Amaranthus/ Corchorus/ Okra 4 Amaranthus/ Okra/ Celocia/ Pumpkin 5 Amaranthus/ Okra/ Corchorus/ Solanum 6 Amaranthus/ Celosia/ Pumpkin/ Corchorus 7 Amaranthus/ Corchorus/ Solanum 8 Amaranthus/ Lettuce/ Spring onion 9 Pumpkin 10 Lettuce/ Spring onion Constant 32.53 (5.710)*** 36.34 (5.677)*** 21.935 (3.021)*** -3.591 (6.046)*** 38.921 (5.602)*** -32.739 (5.796)*** 34.889 (6.006)*** 39.068 (5.916)*** 47.966 (5.211)*** 24.698 (3.108)*** Age 0.335 (0.010)** 0.322 (0.099)** 0.210 (0.121)* 0.208 (0.106)** 0.396 (0.106)*** 0.286 (0.101)** 0.288 (0.032)** 0.268 (0.102)** 0.270 (0.099)** 0.162 (0.096)* Sex -2.293 (1.479) -2.423 (1.476) 17.309 (2.749)* -3.233 (-.524)* -2.429 (1.597) -.464 (1.506) -2.761 (1.559)* -1.459 (1.578) -1.882 (1.458) -1.674 (1.396) Education 0.311 (0.120)* 0.234 (0.110)* 0.228 (0.143) 0.372 (0.361)** 0.321 (0.139)* 0.353 (0.125)** 0.205 (0.130) 0.179 (0.125) 0.341 (0.118)** 0.021 (0.133) Experience 0.013 (0.072) 0.021 (0.072) -0.042 (0.095) 0.137 (0.079) -0.032 (0.084) 0.090 (0.074) 0.032 (0.078) -0.114 (0..081) 0.024 (0.071) 0.007 (0.070) Household size 0.482 (0.307) 0.486 (0.307) 1.145 (0.394)** 0.769 (0.329)* 0.224 (0.343) 0.495 (0.315) 0.671 (0.322)* 0.409 (0.321) 0.671 (0.302)* 0.375 (0.286) Marital status -0.289 (0.839) 0.352 (0.835) -2.161 (1.498) -0.323 (0.878) -0.474 (0.969) -.963 (0.878)*** -0.862 (0.961) -1.230 (0.9791) -0.025 (0.862)** -0.332 (0.745) Credit -19.974 (-.967)** -19.482 (2.974)*** -9.789 (3.105)*** -17.675 (2.802)*** 0.472 (2.969) -.308 (2.983) -0.137 (3.011)*** -20.152 (3.011)*** -19.531 (2.992)*** -20.010 (3.015)*** Farm size -11.418 (-4.921)* -21.061 (5.089)*** 2.120 (5.480) -2.120 (-5.135) 12.606 (5.667)* -.012 (4.986) -3.678 (5.578)* -10.975 (5.359)* 1.082 (4.546) -0.402 (4.310) Farm output 0.0467 (0.025)*** 0.026 (0.023) 0.023 (0.035 0.061 (0.282)* 0.357 (0.049)*** 0.056 (0.027)*** 0.068 (0.036)*** 0.165 (0.041)*** 0.437 (0.063)** 0.508 (0.083)*** Notes: *** , ** and * significant at 1%; 5%; and 10%. Figures in parenthesis are standard errors; Prob > χ2 = 0.0000; Pseudo R2 = 0.343 Log pseudo likelihood = -592.05, The regression indicated that seven out of nine explanatory variables included in the multinomial logit model were significant at the 10 per cent level. These include: age, gender, education, household size, credit availability, farm size and vegetable output. The model fitness result showed that the log pseudo likelihood estimate was -592.05. The Chi-square value of 618.05 which was significant at one percent level indicating that the model fitted the data adequately. However, the Pseudo R2 value was 0.343, indicating that the explanatory variables explained about 34.3 per cent of the variation in the choice of cropping patterns among wetlands vegetable farmers in the research study area. Ojo et al. (2013), equally reported a pseudo R2 value of 0.34 among small holder arable crop farmers in Nigeria State. In comparison with the sole lettuce cropping pattern, the respondents' average age was significant at various probability levels, and it was positively related with the possibility of choosing any of the other crop combinations. The positive and significant relationship of age to the choice of vegetable patterns showed that any increase in the farmers' ages may likely increase the choice of choosing any of the cropping patterns. The result suggests that as farmers’ increase in age, there is possibility of venturing into any of the cropping patterns that will give them maximum profit due to market demand and available resources. Sex of the respondents influenced the choice of choosing cropping pattern with sole Lettuce combination. The probability of choosing any of the vegetable combinations Amaranthus spp/ Okra/ Celosia/ Pumpkin, Amaranthus/ Corchorus/ Solanum were negative and significantly influenced the cropping pattern (p<0.10). This showed that female respondents cultivate more of these two vegetables for the reason that they generate more profit from it. Similarly, the probability of choosing Amaranthus/ Corchorus/ Okra was positive and significant at (p<0.01) indicating that male farmers are likely to prefer planting of this combination. Olanrewaju et al., (2021), confirmed that planting the same types of vegetable is common among male and female gender. Education was significant for Amaranthus/ Celosia/ Corchorus, Amaranthus/ Corchorus, Amaranthus/ Corchorus/ Okra, Amaranthus/ Okra/ Celosia/ Pumpkin, Amaranthus, Okra, Corchorus/Solanum, and Pumpkin. This suggests that the farmers' level of education improved the likelihood of choosing any of the cropping patterns. Likewise, as vegetable farmers acquired more education, they are empowered with the knowledge and skills needed to enhance their production practice. The result is thus in conformity with Amusa et al. (2017). The estimates in Table 5 showed that household size positively and significantly influenced the choice of Amaranthus/Corchorus/Okra; Amaranthus/ Okra/ Celocia/Pumpkin; Amaranthus/ Corchorus/Solanum (p<0.10) in comparison with sole Lettuce combination. Therefore, the likelihood of choosing these cropping patterns increases with household size. This further indicated that an expansion in the size of active family members will increase the probability of choosing any of these over sole Lettuce cropping. Since, vegetable production is not strenuous or demand strength, any member of the family that can hold cutlass or machete as well as do minor jobs on the farm can become involved in wetlands vegetable production. Credit availability showed an inverse but significant for all cropping patterns with the exception of Amaranthus/Okra/Corchorus/Solanum which was positive but not significant (p>0.01). The coefficients of the variable for the respective combinations were negative and significant (p<0.01), indicating that non-access to finance among the respondents, the lowers the probability of the wetland’s vegetable farmers choosing any of the cropping patterns. Thus, farmers are more likely not to choose any of these cropping patterns due to non-availability of finance since wetlands cultivation requires huge capital to start the business. The result tends to suggest that, credit is not readily available to the wetlands farmers in the research area. In addition, the regression for Amaranthus/Okra /Corchorus, Solanum, Amaranthus, Celocia/ Pumpkin/ Corchorus showed positive and negative signs respectively which not significant at the 10 per cent level. Tanimonure et al. (2020), confirmed that credit is scarce for small scale vegetable farmers in Osun state. Farm size negatively influenced the choice of venturing into any of the cropping patterns instead of sole Lettuce at 1per cent level of significance with the exception of Amaranthus/ Corchorus/ Okra/ Pumpkin for which farm size was positive but not significant at 10 per cent level. The negative signs indicate that the probability of choosing any of the other cropping patterns over the sole Lettuce tend to reduce with farm size. The reason for this could be that majority of the farmlands used among wetlands farmers were acquired through rentage in which ease expansion; proper management of the land as well as sustainability may be extremely difficult. In addition, due to the land terrain and seasonality of production, vegetable farmers tend to view investment in wetlands as being risky and wasting venture since land usage period very short due to unfavorable tenural arrangement. In case of farm output, the probability of choosing any of the cropping pattern over sole Lettuce was positive and significant (p<0.01) with the exception of Amaranthus/ Corchorus and Amaranthus/ Corchorus/Okra which were not significant but positive. The result showed that due to the possibility of more wetlands and performance output, farmers tend to choose any of the other cropping patterns over sole Lettuce since such combinations could yield more output. This implies that, due to plausible increment in output vegetable farmers are more prone to select any of the cropping patterns with the exception of the Amaranthus/ Corchorus and Amaranthus/ Corchorus/Okra combinations. Conclusion This study examined factors affecting the choice of an enterprise combination among wetlands vegetable farmers in Southwest, Nigeria. The study shows that wetlands vegetable production is basically carried out on smallholder basis, with average farm size of about 0.38 hectares. The result revealed that Amaranthus, and Corchorus was the common cropping pattern practiced among the respondents. About 81.6 per cent of the wetland’s farmers cultivated Amaranthus in combination with other vegetables. The result showed that combining three enterprises Amaranthus/Celosia/Corchorus yielded the highest output of 69.08kg/ grain equivalent. The result of the multinomial logit model revealed that age was the most sensitive parameter affecting choice of cropping pattern among the respondents, revealing that, younger farmers are more interested in cultivating vegetable combination that will give them maximum output. Therefore, proper sensitization from government and other non-governmental agencies could encourage farmers to adopt this cropping pattern. References Adewumi, A. (2017). Optimum production plans for cassava-based crop farmers in Kwara State, Nigeria. 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