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Crime Prediction Using Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Akinyotu, D.V., Sako, D.J.S., Igiri, C.G.

Abstract

Urban crime is a pressing challenge that threatens public safety, social stability, and economic development. As cities expand, the dynamics of criminal activities become more complex, requiring predictive and preventive solutions. This paper proposes a model for predicting crime through temporal and spatial analysis, with the goal of enhancing proactive policing and efficient resource allocation. The study integrates advanced machine learning methods to capture both the temporal recurrence and spatial distribution of crime. Three predictive models were implemented: a Convolutional Neural Network to capture spatial crime patterns across neighbourhoods, a Long Short-Term Memory network to model temporal sequences of crime occurrences, and a Hybrid CNN–LSTM model to combine spatial and temporal learning. The models were trained and evaluated on large-scale urban crime data, with performance assessed using multiple metrics including MAE, RMSE, R2, Precision, Recall, F1-score, AUROC, HitRate@k, and PAI@k. Results showed that the CNN achieved strong regression accuracy (MAE = 0.074, R2 = 0.987), the LSTM excelled in hotspot detection with near-perfect classification metrics (Precision = Recall = F1 = 0.957; HitRate@k = 0.957), and the Hybrid model delivered intermediate performance (R2 = 0.938; Precision/Recall = 0.160). A prototype web-based application was also developed, integrating the preprocessing pipeline and predictive model into a functional interface that allows users to input data, generate predictions, and visualize crime hotspots across neighbourhoods.

Keywords

Crime PredictionSpatio-Temporal AnalysisCrime EpisodesDeep LearningLSTMCNN

References

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