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Biomathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease Dynamics and Climate Variability for Sustainable Public Health Planning in Imo State

I. B Ekeanyanwu and, G. L Nwosu

Abstract

In order to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease transmission in Imo State, Nigeria, with a focus on malaria, this study offers a climate-driven biomathematical SEIR model. The model is analytically demonstrated to be positive, bounded, and epidemiologically well posed. It takes temperature, humidity, and rainfall into account while calculating the transmission rate. Numerical simulations show an initial increase in infections followed by convergence to an endemic equilibrium using baseline parameter values (recruitment rate = 20 individuals/day, natural death rate = 0.01 day?1, recovery rate = 0.1 day?1, and baseline transmission rate 0 = 0.03 day?1). The findings indicate that by raising the basic reproduction number 0 R , increasing rainfall intensity within the range of 0.2–1.0 considerably raises infection peaks and maintains endemic levels. On the other hand, climate-informed control tactics show that prompt interventions during high-risk climatic periods can successfully suppress transmission by lowering long-term prevalence and peak infections. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of climate-responsive modeling for sustainable public health planning in Imo State and the crucial role that climate variability plays in disease persistence.

Keywords

Biomathematical modelling; Climate variability; Infectious disease dynamics; Malaria transmission; Public health planning

References

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