The Political Economy of Russia/Ukraine War and Trade Implications in Selected Sub-Saharan African States

Abstract

This study used secondary data from World Integrated Trade System and World Bank Bulletin to analyze and examined the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Trade relations in African States where sub-regional African countries like Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa were selected to represent the sample size of population for this study. Panel data for trade activities from the 3 selected countries between 1980 and 2022 were analyzed using EVIEW statistical tool and functional econometric variables that are relevant to this study were measured and critically analyzed to determine the degree at which the war between Russia and Ukraine have adversely affected trade in the selected countries. The shift in the global alliances by African states have resulted in creating alternative trade routes for the countries giving the disruptions and sanctions imposed on Russia by United Nations. The trade relationship with Russia/Ukraine and the selected African states for several years have been fluctuating on account of sanctions or disruptions in the world market. Ukraine, being a major grain exporter, plays a significant role in the food supply of the selected African countries, the disruption in the grain demand and supply chain between Ukraine and the selected countries has been seriously obstructed due to the ongoing war between the warring nations, thereby posing a serious threat to the food security of the selected countries regarding grains exportation dependency by the Ukrainian nation. Additionally, Russia's investments in Africa has equally been affected as a result it involvement in the conflict, potentially altering it long term foreign direct investment in the selected countries due to the various form of sanctions being imposed by the United Nations which has voraciously affect the quantum of the Russian nation investment activities in the selected African countries. Findings revealed that the war between Russia and Ukraine due over dependence have significant effects

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