Modeling the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Sustainable Maritime Transportation System in Nigeria Using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach
Abstract
This research examines how macroeconomic factors affect Nigeria's sustainable maritime transportation system, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing method. Concentrating on the years between 1982 to 2023, we analyze the relationships between dry bulk transportation , non-oil bulk transportation , real gross domestic product , and unemployment (UR). The descriptive statistics indicate significant differences among the variables, with DBT and NOBT showing changes in trade linked to both local and international market fluctuations. Meanwhile, RGDP and UR reveal the cyclical patterns of economic performance and the labor market's reaction. Stationarity tests and unit root tests show that the series stabilize after differencing, confirming their appropriateness for long-term analysis. The Johansen cointegration test uncovers four cointegrating vectors, indicating stable long-term relationships between the variables. Results from the ARDL analysis show that both DBT and NOBT positively impact RGDP, though with a lag, highlighting the critical role of maritime trade in promoting growth. In contrast, unemployment shows minimal influence, aligning with the idea of jobless growth in Nigeria. The error-correction mechanism indicates that about 22% of any discrepancies are corrected each month, confirming a slow movement toward long-term stability. This study emphasizes that having an effective bulk transportation system is crucial for fostering long-term economic growth and diversification in Nigeria. Additionally, short-term disruptions in the maritime sector tend to be correct in a cyclical manner.
Keywords
MacroeconomicFactorsSustainableMaritimeTransportationARDLBounds
References
Abolarin, P. (2005). NPA workers protest concessioning. Daily Champion, July 15, 13 Adedotun J,A , Joash M and Luke, R (2023) Effect of shipping trade on economic growth in Nigeria: The Vector Error Correction Model approach. Journal of Shipping and Trade, 8:15 Adenigbo, O., Oladipo, T., & Afolabi, S. (2023). Effect of shipping trade on economic growth in Nigeria: A Vector Error Correction Model approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 57(2), 101–122. Afolabi, L. (1999). Monetary economics. Ibadan: Heinemann Educational Books. Afolabi, T. (2015). Building economic capacity through maritime infrastructure development. Nigerian Journal of Maritime Studies, 7(3), 23–35. Afolabi, T. O. (2015). Building economic capacity through maritime infrastructure development. Afolayan, O. (1994). Seaport Development in Nigeria: A Case Study of Apapa Port Complex. An unpublished M. Sc. Thesis. Transport Study Department of Geography and Regional Planning, Ogun State University, AgoIwoye, Nigeria. Agiobenebo, T. J., & Onuchuku, O. (2000). Economics: A modern approach. Port Harcourt: Pam Unique Publishing Company. Ajayi, S. (2003). Globalization and African’s dilemma: The myth and the reality. Nigerian Tribune, 23–26. Akaso, A. A., Bariweni, P. A. & Abowei, J. F. (2011). Some economic and environmental benefits of maritime transportation in Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agriculture, Food and Environment.7 (4), 97-110. Akaso, F., Bariweni, M., & Abowei, J. (2011). Maritime transportation and its significance to the Nigerian economy. Journal of Maritime Studies, 4(1), 45–59. Akaso, P. E., Abam, T. S. K., & Ohale, L. (2011). The role of maritime transport in Nigeria’s economic development. Journal of Maritime Research, 8(2), 45–57. Akinwale, A. A. & Aremo, M. O. (2010).Concession as a catalyst for crisis management in Nigerian Ports. The African Symposium: Journal of African Educational Research Network, 10 (2), 117-126. Akpakpan, E. E. (1999). The financial sector in Nigeria: Structure, policy, and performance. Uyo: Academic Press. Anishere, J. C. (2016). Introduction to maritime law and admiralty jurisdiction in Nigeria. Paper presented at the 14th International maritime Seminar for Judges, 31st May – 1 st June, 2016 Sheraton Hotel and Towers, Abuja. Anya, O. A. (1995). The Nigerian economy: Problems and prospects. Enugu: Institute for Development Studies. Anyanwu, C. N. (1971). Port Harcourt, 1912-1955: A Study in the Rise and Development of a Nigerian Municipality’, Ph. D thesis, University of Ibadan. Anyanwu, J. C. (1993). Monetary economics: Theory, policy, and institutions. Onitsha: Hybrid Publishers. Anyikwa, I. I. (2016). Economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria: An empirical analysis. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(7), 123–131. Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0 Asoluka, C. (2002). National Maritime Authority’s Compilation of Nigerian Maritime Laws, A National Maritime Authority Publication, I and II. E- ISSN 2489-009X , Badejo, B. & Solaja, M. O. (2014). Dilemma of Indigenous Shipping Industry in Nigeria: A Reflection. Journal of Engineering and Environmental Studies, 5 (1) 123-131 Badejo, B. & Solaja, O. (2017). The Nigerian seaports and development (1900-2015): Historical perspectives and dynamics. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 6 (9), 1007-1024 Badejo, O. (2014). Maritime transportation industry in Nigeria: Structure, analysis, challenges, and prospects. Journal of Transport and Logistics, 6(2), 15–29. Badejo, O., & Solaja, T. (2017). The Nigerian seaports and development (1900–2015): Historical perspectives and dynamics. International Journal of Maritime Affairs, 9(1), 1–20. Bivbere, G. (2005). Concessioning: 3 indigenous firms merge for Port Harcourt Port. Retrieved January 14, 2018, from http//www.dnetsystems.net. Caine, R. N. & Caine, G. (1997). Education on the edge of possibility, Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2010). Infrastructure and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 19(suppl_1), i13–i87. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejp022 Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2010). Infrastructure and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 19(1), i13–i87. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejp022 Cameron, S. (2004). The spotlight is on the privatisation process. Port strategy October, 24 26. Chidoka, O. (2002). Landlord port model: Role and functions of an industry regulator. Paper presented at the two -day national workshop on port reforms held in Lagos. Central Bank of Nigeria. (1961). Establishment and functions of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Abuja: Government Press. Chizea, B. (2008). Nigerian content development in the oil and gas industry: Capacity building strategies. Lagos: Nigerian Institute of International Affairs. Chizea, C. (2008). Development of the maritime industry: Issues and challenges. African Maritime Review, 3(1), 10–22. Cullinane, K., & Khanna, M. (2000). Economies of scale in large containerships: Optimal size and geographical implications. Journal of Transport Geography, 8(3), 181–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0966-6923(00)00010-7 David, A., Porwekobowei, C., & Christophere, E. (2023). Determinants of maritime sector performance in Nigeria (2000–2022). Journal of Transport Economics, 11(1), 34–52. David, O I, Porwekobowei A & Christophere (2023) determinants of maritime sector performance in Nigeria. GPH-International Journal of Business Management.6,12: Deebom, Z, D, Lekara B, I,B & Da Wariboko, A,Y(2022) the nexus between real sector diversification and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria: ARDL-ECM Approach. Studies in Economics and International Finance, 2583-1526, 2,. 205-223 Dennie, C. (2018). The Significance of a Port in a Small Developing Country: A Case of Antigua and Barbuda. The International Journal of Maritime Themes. https://www.academia.edu. Ekpo, I. A. (2012). Maritime development and shipping in Nigeria. Lagos: Maritime Press. Elger, D. F. (2007). The theory of performance: How to deliver value in learning and performance. San Francisco, CA: Pfeiffer. Esfahani, H. S., & Ramírez, M. T. (2003). Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 70(2), 443–477. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304- 3878(02)00105-0 E- ISSN 2489-009X , Esfahani, H. S., & Ramírez, M. T. (2003). Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 70(2), 443–477. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304- 3878(02)00105-0 Eto G.M. and Okon N.B. (2025) Impact Assessment of Maritime Transportation Infrastructure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth and Development, Global Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, 13, 3, 1-26 Eto, A., & Okon, B. (2025). Impact assessment of maritime transportation infrastructure on Nigeria’s economic growth and development. Journal of African Transport Studies, 15(1), 88–107. Eto, G.M. (2023). The Principles and Practice of Port and Shipping Operations in Nigeria. Heavens Rule Heritage Ltd. Eze, P., & Odigbo, C. (2017). Economic growth theories: Solow-Swan growth model revisited. International Journal of Economics and Management, 6(2), 45–58. Federal Ministry of Transport . (1995). National shipping policy document. Abuja: Federal Government of Nigeria. Gbosi, A. N. (1993). Fiscal policy and budgetary deficits in Nigeria. Lagos: Malthouse Press. Goldberg, D., & Williams, P. (1988). A user’s guide to the General Health Questionnaire. Windsor, UK: NFER-Nelson. Ibeawuchi, C. Nze, & Okeudo, G. N. (2013). Empirical evaluation of the maritime industry’s impact on the Nigerian economy. International Journal of Current Research, 5(6), 1355– 1359. Ibeawuchi, E., & Okeudo, N. (2013). Empirical evaluation of the maritime industry’s impact on the Nigerian economy. Nigerian Journal of Economics and Development, 5(2), 55–70. Idornigie, P. O. (2006). Desig
More Articles from INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICAL THEORY
5-Point Block Backward Differentiation Formulae for Solving Stiff Chemical Reaction Problems of Ordinary Differential Equations
Author: Samson Yunusa, Imande Terdon Terlumun,, Etuk Emmanuel Dan, and Micah Michael
Analytical–Numerical Solution of a Temperature-Dependent Volterra Integro-Differential Model for Avian Influenza Transmission with Saturated Incidence and Environmental Feedback Via an Enhanced Adomian Decomposition Method
Author: Ejes, Valentine, Liberty Ebiwareme
Modelling Dengue Transmission Dynamics using a Two-Time Delay Differential Equation
Author: Uwakwe, J. I., Anyanwu, E., Inalegwu, N.
Intelligent Diagnosis and Dynamic Differentiated Instruction for High-School Mathematics Concepts Based on APOS Theory - Model Development, Implementation Pathway, And Validation Plan
Author: Xi Yang, Wenzhuo Zhang
Distribution-Free Error Control for Fraud Alert Triage: Conformal Anomaly P-Values Under Class Imbalance, Concept Drift, and Calibration Contamination
Author: Olamiji Onafowokan1, Olawale Fadugba2, Deborah Okunola1, Alex Mendy1