Average Temperature Trends and Rainfall patterns within Jere Local Government Area of Kaduna State, Northwest-Nigeria: A Case from 1989 to 2018

Abstract

The Average Temperature Trends and rainfall patterns within Jere local government area of Kaduna State, Nigeria have been studied from 1989 to 2018. The results revealed a significant increase in annual rainfall from 1989 to 2018, with an annual trend of +143.26 mm/year. Rainfall ranged from 739.40 mm in 2008 to 1779.31 mm in 2018, with an average of 1267.61 mm, revealing the inter-annual variability nature within the study area. August was the wettest month (337.5 mm), whereas January and December are the driest months (0 mm). Projections indicate annual rainfall will rise from 1779.31 mm in 2018 to 2143.01 mm by 2048, reflecting increased rainfall patterns. Temperature analysis revealed a gradual warming trend, with an average of 26.65°C and extremes ranging from 20.5°C to 32.80°C. April is the hottest month (32.8°C), while January and December sees cooler temperatures due early onset of the rainfall season. Predicted future projection suggest temperatures will rise to 1.66oC by 2048, with a statistically significant warming trend (R2 = 0.572, p < 0.002). The temperature anomalies obtained range from - 4.71°C to + 6.04°C with modest variability. In this regard, it is the position of this paper, to recommend Climate Smart Water Use strategies as this will reinforces Policymakers to prioritize mechanism through public awareness such as urban planning and sustainable land use land cover practices to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

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