Youth Bulges and Urban Violence in an Oil City: A Mixed?Methods Research Design Linking Large Youth Cohorts to Political and Urban Violence in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Abstract

This paper develops a mixed?methods research design to examine whether and how large youth cohorts contribute to political and urban violence in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria. We define “youth” primarily as ages 18–50 (with sensitivity analyses for narrower bands) and integrate geocoded incident data (police records, ACLED, media), gridded and administrative population data, a planned representative multistage household survey of residents aged 18–50, and qualitative interviews and focus groups with youth, ex?combatants, community leaders, and security actors. Analytic methods include multilevel regression for individual propensity outcomes; count and spatial models for incident rates (negative binomial, spatial lag/error, Bayesian CAR/INLA); hotspot detection (Getis?Ord Gi, Kulldorff scan); and causal mediation to test mechanisms (unemployment, political exclusion, patronage networks, policing). The design emphasizes rigorous cluster sampling (target n ? 900 across ?60 neighborhoods), power simulations, privacy?preserving geospatial handling, and ethical safeguards for high?risk research. Based on theory and prior evidence, we anticipate that neighborhood youth concentration will be associated with higher local incident rates, conditional on high youth unemployment and political exclusion; robust spatial clustering is expected in socioeconomically deprived wards. Policy recommendations center on targeted employment, community?engaged policing, political inclusion mechanisms, and urban planning to reduce recruitment pools. This manuscript is a research blueprint intended to enable empirical testing and policy?relevant interventions.

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