Distribution-free Survival Analysis for Reliability Evaluation of Subsea Distribution Units
Abstract
Subsea Distribution Units (SDUs) are critical components in offshore production systems, responsible for routing hydraulic, chemical, and electrical services to subsea wells. Failures in SDUs cause costly downtime, complex interventions, and safety/environmental risks. Reliability analysis is often hindered by limited and censored failure data, making parametric lifetime models unreliable. This study applies distribution-free survival analysis using the Kaplan–Meier estimator and Nelson–Aalen cumulative hazard method to evaluate SDU component reliability. Survival curves, hazard functions, and failure rankings are generated for major subsystems based on operational field data (41,902 units, 392 failures). Results highlight Power/Signal Couplers and Hydraulic/Chemical Jumpers as the most failure-prone subsystems, with elevated cumulative hazards. This work demonstrates the value of non-parametric survival methods for offshore reliability studies where distributional assumptions are uncertain.
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