Decadal Trend Analysis of August Break in Selected States of Southern Region of Nigeria

Abstract

This study considered decadal trend analysis of August break of some selected states--Asaba, Awka, Benin, Calabar and Enugu in the Southern region of Nigeria, using secondary data of the daily values of rainfall acquired from the archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency(NIMET). These data covered a period of 42 years (1971-2013). From the data analysis, the decadal trend in August break shows that August break is not consistent. We observed a drift in the normal August break from August to June and also to October. This is in an agreement with the result of a similar study that showed a 0.25 probability that August break could occur in the month of June. This shift in August break could be attributed to the reality of climate change. More so, a sudden shift in seasons whether short or long dry season could promote the outbreak of certain diseases, provide suitable conditions for pests to thrive, and pose a considerable economic loss to farmers. Hence the need to checkmate any anthropogenic activity that constitutes a driver of climate change.

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