IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

Journal of Business and African Economy (JBAE )

E-ISSN 2545-5281
P-ISSN 2695-2238
VOL. 11 NO. 4 2025
DOI: 10.56201/jbae.vol.11.no4.2025.pg56.75

---

Agricultural Sector Performance and Unemployment rate: evidence from Nigeria

Momodu, AA, Ewubare D.B., Chukwu, S.N and Gbaranen, R.K.

---

Abstract

This study examined the effect of agricultural sector performance on unemployment rate in Nigeria over the period of forty-three (43) years (1981 to 2023). Agricultural sector performance was proxied by crop production, livestock production, forestry production and fishing production while unemployment rate was the dependent variable. The study utilized time series data and the data were sourced from World Bank Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports. The technique of data analysis adopted include: descriptive statistical technique, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) of unit root test, correlation matrix of multicollinearity test, and Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach. The findings of the study showed that crop production, livestock production and fishing production have negative and significant effect on unemployment rate in Nigeria. Also, forestry production has a negative and non-significant effect on unemployment rate in Nigeria. Premised on the findings, the study concluded that agricultural sector performance significantly influences unemployment rate in Nigeria. The study therefore, recommends that the government and private sector should prioritize investments in agricultural infrastructure, including irrigation systems, rural roads, storage facilities, and processing plants to boast production capacities thereby reducing unemployment in the country.

keywords:

Unemployment rate, crop production, livestock production, forestry production, fishing production

---

References:

Aderemi, T. A., Wahid D. O., Ayodeji, G. B., Hassan, C. O., Osabohien., R., & Azuh, D. E.
(2021). Role of Agriculture in Poverty Reduction in Nigeria: An Implication for
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). African Journal of Business and Economic
Research (AJBER), Special Edition: Perspectives on Demographic Dividend, and
Economic Growth for Sustainable Development, 267-280.
Ali, I., Khan, I., Ali, H., Baz, K., Zhang, O., Khan, A., & Huo, X. (2020). The impact of
agriculture trade and exchange rate on economic growth of Pakistan: an NARDL and
asymmetric analysis approach. Ciência Rural, Santa Maria, 50(4), 1-15.
Amaefula, C. G. (2019). Impact of Agricultural Sector on Nigeria’s Economic Growth Using
Regression and Percentage Ratio Measure. International Journal of Research and
Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS), 4(9), 72-77.
Anderson, B., & Greene, J. (2019). agricultural sustainability and resource management.
Oxford University Press.
Asogwa, I. S., & Onyegbulam, L. A. (2021). Contributions of The Agricultural Value-Added
Output to Employment Creation and Regional Trade Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Nigerian Agricultural Journal, 52(1), 45-52.
Awolaja, O. G., & Okedina, I. M. (2020). Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Exchange
Rate on Agricultural Output in Nigeria,1981-2017. Central Bank of Nigeria Economic
and Financial Review, 58(4), 41-62.
Awoyemi, B. O., Afolabi, B., & Akomolafe, K. J. (2017). Agricultural Productivity and
Economic Growth: Impact Analysis from Nigeria. Scientific Research Journal (SCIRJ),
5(10), 1-7.
Aymen, F., Ali, C., Khondoker, A. M., Daniel, M., & Boubaker, D. (2020). Agricultural
growth and sex-disaggregated employment in Africa: Future perspectives under
different
investment
scenarios.
Global
Food
Security,
24(2020),
1-10.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100353
Chukwu, C. B. (2023). Impact of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth in Nigeria.
Available
at
SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=4432800
or
http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4432800
Clement, K. (2021). Agricultural sector performance and job creation in Nigeria. International
Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, 8(5), 01-08.
Cletus, U. I., & Sunday, M. J. (2018). Government Expenditure On Agriculture and Economic
Growth in Nigeria (1985-2015). International Journal of Academic Research and
Reflection, 6(4), 24-39.
Diao, X., Hazell, P., & Thurlow, J. (2010). The role of agriculture in African
development. World development, 38(10), 1375-1383.
Diebold, F. X., & Yilmaz, K. (2012). Better to give than to receive: predictive directional
measurement of volatility spillovers. Int J Forecast, 28(1), 57–66.
Dkhar, D. S. & De, U. K. (2018). Public expenditure on agriculture and economic growth: a
casestudy of Meghalaya. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 31(2), 271-
279.https://doi.org/10.5958/0974-0279.2018.00044.7
Ebere, C. E., Ajibola, J. O., & Onakoya, A. B. (2022). Agriculture and Employment Creation:
Evidence from Nigeria. Euro Economica, 2(41), 58-88
Eche, N. A., Pam, B. J., Pam, D. F., & Tunde, F. (2020). Effect of agricultural development
on unemployment reduction in Nigeria: An error correction mechanism m approach.
Ianna Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 2(1), 95-107.
Ehui, S. K., &Tsigas, M. E. (2009). The role of agriculture in Nigeria’s economic growth: A
general equilibrium analysis (No. 1005-2016-79207).
Etea, I., & Obodoechi, D. N. (2019). Agricultural Output and Economic Growth: The Case of
Nigeria. DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth, 2(10, 1-19.
Ewubare, D.B. & Obayori, J.B. (2015). The real sector performance and unemployment rate in
Nigeria. British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 10 (2), 183-
194
Fan, S., & Rao, N. (2008). Public spending in agriculture: Trends and impacts. IFPRI
Discussion Papers.
FAO (2020). State of food and agriculture: Sustainability in Action.
FAO. (2022). State of Food and Agriculture 2022: Investing in Rural Infrastructure for
Inclusive Agricultural Development. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations.
Festus, V. B. (2015). The Contribution of Agricultural Sector on the Economic Growth of
Nigeria. MSc Thesis, Eastern Mediterranean University.
Godwin, U. N., Alwell, N., Monday, R., & Kalu, I. (2021). Government Agricultural Support
Projects: Implications on Job Creation in Rivers State. International Journal of
Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 5(13), 165-173.
Gollin, D. (2010). Agricultural productivity and economic growth. Handbook of agricultural
economics, 4, 3825-3866.
Gollin, D. (2019). Agricultural productivity and economic growth. Handbook of Agricultural
Economics, 18, 205-245.
Idoko, C. U., & Jatto, S. M. (2018). Government expenditure on agriculture and economic
growth in Nigeria (1985-2015). International Journal of Academic Research and
Reflection, 6(4), 24-39.
Igben, M. S., &Eyo, E. O. (2012). Agricultural economics: An introduction to basic
concepts and principles. Bestprints Business Press, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria.
Kenny, S. V. (2019). The role of agricultural sector performance on economic growth in
Nigeria. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93132/
Megbowon, E., Ngarava, S., Etim, N. A. & Popoola, o. (2019). Impact of Government
Expenditure on Agricultural Productivity in South Africa. The Journal of Social
Sciences Research, 5(12), 1734-1742. https://doi.org/10.32861/jssr.512.1734.1742
Obansa, S. A. J., & Maduekwe, I. M. (2013). Agriculture financing and economic growth in
Nigeria. European Scientific Journal, 9(1), 168-204.
Obasaju, B.O., & Baiyegunhi, L.S., (2019). Agricultural output and macroeconomic policy:
examining the delicate linkage in Nigeria. The Journal of Developing Areas, 53(1), 18-
Obiora Peters Emeka. (2022). Agriculture value chain cluster and job creation in Nigeria.
International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research, 9(3), 177-194. DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.22192/ijamr.2022.09.03.015
Ochada, I. M., & Ogunniyi, M. B. (2020). Agricultural output performance, employment
generation and per capita income in Nigeria. Biz Econs Quarterly, 11, 15–26.
Olanma, O. I. (2023). The Nexus between Agricultural Development and Employment
Generation in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 23(19),
66–83. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2023/v23i191073
Oluwafemi, S.E, Saidi, A.M & Onyeka, P.I., (2019). Impact of agriculture sector growth on
unemployment level in Nigeria. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 22(5),
1- 13.
Otsuka, K., & Fan, S. (2021). Agriculture and Economic Transformation in Developing
Economies. Springer.
Tochukwu, O. R., Samuel, O. O., Olanipekun, W. D., & Aderemi, T. A. (2021). Is Agriculture
still a Strong Force in Employment Generation in Nigeria? An Empirical Investigation.
Euro Economica, (2 (40), 90-100.
World Bank (2021). Agricultural Sector at a Crossroads: Pathways for Transformation in
Developing Economies. Washington, D.C.
World Bank. (2019). Global financial development report 2019/2020: Bank regulation and
supervision a decade after the global financial crisis. The World Bank.

DOWNLOAD PDF

---

Back