IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND MANAGEMENT RESEARCH (IJSSMR )

E-ISSN 2545-5303
P-ISSN 2695-2203
VOL. 11 NO. 1 2025
DOI: 10.56201/ijssmr.vol.11no1.2025.pg.269.288

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Empirical Analysis of Commodity Trade on Economic Well-Being: Evidence from Nigeria

Victor AKIDI, Ibeinmo Friday COOKEY & Oliseeloke Tamuno OLISE

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Abstract

Examined in this study is how commodity trade influenced economic well-being of Nigerians over the sampled period, 1988 to 2022. Commodity trade is employed as the independent variable and measured as net agriculture exports, net manufacturing exports, net mining and quarrying exports and net service exports while economic well-being, indicated as Human Development Index is the regressand. The study utilized annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The data analyses conducted comprise the short-run and long-run Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation processes. The empirical outputs established that net agriculture exports and net manufacturing exports exerted favourable and substantial effects on Human Development Index in Nigeria in both short-run and long-run while net mining and quarrying exports exerted favourable but insignificant effects in the long-run, its one year lagged result had favourably substantial impact on Human Development Index; and net service exports had favourable but insignificant effects in the long-run but had favourable and substantial effects on the regressand in the short-run in Nigeria. The study concluded that net commodity trades are important contributors to improved economic well-being in Nigeria over the sampled period. It is therefore suggested that government should implement policies that promote diversification of Nigeria’s export base by encouraging multi-sectorial real investments for expanded value chain exploration to improve trade balance.

keywords:

Commodity Trade, Net Exports, Economic Well-being, Human Development Index and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Nigeria

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