IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICAL THEORY (IJASMT )

E- ISSN 2489-009X
P- ISSN 2695-1908
VOL. 10 NO. 4 2024
DOI: 10.56201/ijasmt.v10.no4.2024.pg49.62

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Intervention modeling of Bulgarian Lev/Nigerian Naira exchange Due to 2016 Nigerian Economic Recessions

IPAA CLEMENT TAMBARI, ISAAC DIDI ESSI & Tuaneeh Lebari : .

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Abstract

This research work examined the exchange rate of a comparative value of the Nigeria Naira with respect to Bulgaria lev and Turkish Lira to the two economic recessions of 2016 from 1 January to 31 December 2016 utilizing Box and Tiao's intervention analysis approach (1975). The Eview 10 package was used to evaluate the data. Time plot of daily exchange rate of Bulgaria Lev/Nigeria Naira shows horizontal trend then a vertical abrupt increase at 21 June 2016which prompted an intervention modeling. The pre-intervention dataset also indicated an upward movement showing that the series is not stationary. At a significance level of less than 5%, the pre-intervention series was shown to be stationary by the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. Plotting the stationarized data's correlogram revealed that ARIMA (15,1,15) was suggestive. The accompanying observations and the intervention forecasts are in close agreement. The intervention impact is therefore noteworthy.

keywords:

Intervention, Exchange Rates, Economic & Recessions

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References:

Box, G. E. P., & Tiao, G. C. (1975). Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and
Environmental Problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). (2022).Statistical Bulletin.
Exchange Rate UK. (2010). Historical Exchange Rates.
Nweze, O. (2021). The Challenges Facing the Naira: An Economic Perspective*.
Onasanya, O. S., & Adeniji, A. A. (2013). Exchange rate forecasting theory and models.
Suhurtono, (2007). Intervention Analysis in Time Series Data: Applications and Implications.
World Bank. (2017).Nigeria Economic Report: Recession and Recovery.
World Bank. (2021).Nigeria Economic Update: COVID-19 and the Economy.

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