IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICAL THEORY (IJASMT )

E- ISSN 2489-009X
P- ISSN 2695-1908
VOL. 10 NO. 3 2024
DOI: 10.56201/ijasmt.v10.no3.2024.pg48.58

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Evaluation and Estimation of Bonny LGA’s Consumer Price Index Using Box-Jenkins Method

Atanu, Enebi Yahaya and Yahaya, Abubakar

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Abstract

Consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. It is an important economic indicator that reflects the level of inflationary pressure in the economy. This paper is aimed at finding the best econometric time series model for forecasting CPI. In this research, we utilize the Box-Jenkins method in modelling Nigeria’s consumer price index. The analysis was performed using a time plot of the data to display its trend, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Functions (PACF), and Dickey- Fuller test was used to check for the stationarity of the data. The result shows that ARIMA (3, 1, 4) is a more appropriate model for our data set. The results of the study show that the CPI in bound to continue in an upward trend with respect to time.

keywords:

Box-Jenkins, Modelling, CPI, Nigeria’s, ARIMA

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LCPIF
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± 2 S.E.
Forecast: LCPIF
Actual: LCPI
Forecast sample: 1 172
Adjusted sample: 5 172
Included observations: 168
Root Mean Squared Error
0.121678
Mean Absolute Error 0.106647
Mean Abs. Percent Error
1.962608
Theil Inequality Coef. 0.011255
Bias Proportion 0.767921
Variance Proportion
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Covariance Proportion
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Theil U2 Coefficient
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