IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

International Journal of Engineering and Modern Technology (IJEMT )

E-ISSN 2504-8848
P-ISSN 2695-2149
VOL. 10 NO. 5 2024
DOI: 10.56201/ijemt.v10.no5.2024.pg1.9

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Mathematical Modeling and Analysis for Solar Power Generation for Ado-Ekiti Climate zone, Ekiti State, Nigeria

Adeoye, O.S and Ogunsakin, O

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Abstract

Every climate zone in Nigeria requires adequate, reliable and clean power supply for domestic, commercial and industrial convenience of the citizens. However, the present energy state depicts a huge gap between the power generation and demand. Hence, the need to boost power generation through solar energy cannot be overemphasized. A ten year solar irradiance and temperature data were collected from National aeronautic space administration. The least square regression modeling was applied to the obtained data to determine the power generation for the Ekiti climate zone. Bayelsian criterion and Akaike information criterion were applied were used as the validation to choose the best probabilistic approach in the determination of the power generation among Weibull, Lognormal and Beta probability distributions. The goodness of fit for the least square regression model for power generation of solar energy for the climate zone were 0.94, 0.98 and 0.99 for root mean square error, mean average error and root square respectively. The lognormal probabilistic distribution proved to the best with the highest values of Akaike of 820.45 and Bayelsian information criterion of 930 when compared to both Weibull and Beta distribution. The generated solar power estimation for the period of ten range from 3709.03 kWh to 4126.81kWh.. Efforts should be geared towards using complex regression to further estimate the power generation. Comparative analysis of more probabilistic approaches should be employed to carry out solar power generation.

keywords:

climate, generation, model, solar, zone

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