IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICAL THEORY (IJASMT )

E- ISSN 2489-009X
P- ISSN 2695-1908
VOL. 10. NO. 3 2024
DOI: 10.56201/ijasmt.v10.no3.2024.pg18.32

---

Analyzing the Sensitivity of Coronavirus Disparities in Nigeria Using a Mathematical Model

Stephen I. Okeke and Chukwuka G. Ifeoma

---

Abstract

In this paper, we analyzed the sensitivity of coronavirus disparities in Nigeria using a dynamical mathematical model. Due to the government implementing strict measures such as banning public gatherings, closing places of worship and businesses and encouraging social distancing, we looked closely at the statistics and developed a mathematical model that showed the possible control of this virus and thereby preventing an individual getting infected with the virus. The method of solution involves the first and second sensitivities with a fixed population size that is no further births or migration and the only deaths infections are taken due to baby infections with indication on the initial infected population. The first sensitivity is solved using method separation of variables whose COVID-19 profiles were sketched using ODE45. Obtaining the second sensitivity gives a non-linear ordinary differential equation which is used to determine the behavior of the fixed population size. If the second sensitivity greater than zero then the COVID19 patients steadily decreases to zero while if the second sensitivity less than zero then the COVID19 patients steadily increases and reach maximum. After this maximum point the number of COVID-19 patients decreases and tends to zero. In either case, the COVID-19 patients tends to extinction. The mathematical model showed that the control of this virus is possible.

keywords:

COVID-19; NCDC Nigeria; COVID-19 profile; First sensitivity; Initial infected population; Logistic growths; Mathematical modelling; Second sensitivity

---

References:

Bogoch, I.I, Watts, A., Thomas-Bachli, A., Huber, C., Kraemer, M.U.G and Khan, K.
(2020). Pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan, China: potential for international
spread via commercial air travel. J. Trav. Med, Vol. 27, No. 2.

Ge, H., Wang, X., Yuan X., Xiao, G, Wang C., Deng, T., Yuan, Q. and Xiao, X (2020).
The epidemiology and clinical information about COVID-19. Eur. J. Clin. Microbiol Infct
Dis.Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 1011-1019.

Guan, W.J., Ni, Z.Y., Hu, Y., Liang, W.H., Ou, C.Q., He, J.X., Liu, L., Shan, H., Lei, C.L.,
Hui, D.S.C., Du, B. et al. (2020). China medical treatment expert group for COVID-19.
Clinical characteristics of Coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N. Engl. J. Med. Vol. 382,
No. 18, pp. 1708-1720.

Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y. et al. (2020). Clinical features of
patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet, Vol. 395, No.
10223, 497–506.

Lu, H., Stratton, C.W. and Tang, Y.W. (2020). Outbreak of pneumonia of unknown
etiology in Wuhan China: the mystery and the miracle. Journal of Medical Virology, 92,
pp. 401-402.

Naresh, R., Verma, S.R., Shukla, J.B. and Agarwal, M. (2023). Modeling the effect of
sanitation efforts on the spread of carrier-dependent infectious diseases due to
environmental degradation. Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International
Journal (AAM), Vol. 18, No. 2, Article 6: pp. 1-24.

Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, 2020. Retrieved from
https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/state/on Friday, 22nd December, 2023.

Odor, P.M., Neun, M., Bampoe, S., Clark, S., Heaton, D., Hoogenboom E.M., Patel, A.,
Brown, M. and Kamming, D. (2020). Anesthesia and COVID-19: infection control. Br J
Anaesth, Vol. 125, No. 1, pp. 16-24.

Okeke, S. I., Nwagor, P., Yakubu, H. & Ogoegbulem, O. (2019). Modelling HIV Infection
of
CD4+ T using fractional order. Asian Journal of Mathematics and Applications, Vol.
2019, pp. 1-6.

Page, J., Hinshaw, D. and McKay, B. (2021). In hunt for Covid-19 origin, patient zero
points to second Wuhan market- The man with the first confirmed infection of the new coronavirus told the WHO team that his parents had shopped there. The wall street
journal.

Sharma, R. K., Singh, P. K. and Trivedi, A. K. (2022). Mathematical modelling of
coronavirus variant on humans of COVID-19 in India. Specialusis Ugdymas /Special
Education, Vol. 1, No. 43, pp. 5630 – 5644.

Verma, V.S., Kaushik, H. and Bhadauria, A.S. (2023). Mathematical modelling of
tuberculosis and COVID-19 co-infection in India: a real data analysis on concomitant
diseases. Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM), Vol.

No. 1, Article 9, pp. 1-16.
13. World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Situation Report – 174.
Retrieved from https://who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situationreports/20200712-covid-19-sitrep-174.pdf on Friday, 22nd December, 2023.

Yi, Y., Lagniton, P.N.P, Ye, S., Li, E. and Xu, R.H. (2020). COVID-19: what has been
learned and to be learned about the novel coronavirus disease. Int. J. Biol Sci., Vol. 16, No.
10, pp. 1753-1766.

DOWNLOAD PDF

---

Back