INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND MANAGEMENT RESEARCH (IJSSMR )
E-ISSN 2545-5303
P-ISSN 2695-2203
VOL. 10 NO. 1 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.56201/ijssmr.v10.no1.2024.pg101.107
Strategic Development Assessment: Evaluating Maximum
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected Opportunity
Loss (EOL) for the Cross River Watershed
Ohaji Evans Chukwudi Paulinus (B.Eng, M.Eng, PhD), Mahmud Hussaini (HND, B.Sc. PGD, M.Eng
Abstract
This research explores optimal strategic decision-making for hydropower development in the
Cross River Basin, with a focus on determining Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Expected
Opportunity Loss (EOL) through the use of Decision Modeling (BDM). The objective is to
overcome challenges and optimize resource planning for sustainable development.
Comprehensive data collection was facilitated through collaborative efforts with the Cross
River Basin Development Authority (CRBDA), Parastatals, and Ministries. The collected data
was validated using the Pearson moment coefficient (R2 = 0.9376).The research methodology
encompasses dam project experiments, economic efficiency estimation, net benefit analysis,
and the application of BDM. Key findings highlight hydropower with a Maximum EMV of 1.69
and a Minimum EOL of -0.79. The validation of models resulted in R2 = 0.999, establishing it
as a preferred choice for development. Graphical representation illustrates the dynamics
between EMV and EOL.The study underscores the significance of employing strategic
decision-making models like BDM, providing insights to address challenges and optimize
resource planning. Hydropower is identified as aligning with national goals and Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs). Recommendations advocate for strategic policy implementation,
emphasizing the adoption of renewable energy. BDM's efficacy in drawing inferences from
historical information addresses dimensionality challenges.The suggestion to deploy BDM by
the Federal Government aligns with national SDG pursuits, integrating hydropower as a
renewable energy source. The research solidifies BDM's effectiveness, offering valuable
insights. References are provided to support the methodology and enrich the understanding of
decision modeling and watershed management.
keywords: Expected Monetary Values, Expected Opportunity Loss, Bayelsa Decision Model,
Hydropower, SDGs, Renewable Energy
References:
1. Eme L.C. and Ohaji, E (2019)Cross River Basin, Nigeria. Civil and Environmental Research.
Retrieved from https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/CER/article/view/46852.
2. Eme L.C. and Ohaji, E (2019). Bayesian Decision Modeling in Watershed Management Cross River
Basin, Nigeria The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE),
Journal of Civil Engineering and Environmental Research,Vol.11, No. 2, Pg. 105-
120,www.iiste.orgISSN (Paper) 2224-5790, ISSN (Online) 2225-0514.DOI of
thejournal:10.7176/CERhttp://www.crossref.org/01company/17crossref_members.html.
3. Jiménez, M. E., Gómez, J. D., Agudelo, P. A., & Small, C. (2018). Basin-scale impacts of hydropower
development on the Mompós Depression wetlands, Colombia. Hydrology and Earth System
Sciences, 22(5), 2839-2853. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2839-2018
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