IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND MANAGEMENT RESEARCH (IJSSMR )

E-ISSN 2545-5303
P-ISSN 2695-2203
VOL. 10 NO. 1 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.56201/ijssmr.v10.no1.2024.pg42.54

---

Analysis of Poverty and Unemployment in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: An Outlook to Year 2035

Rex Oforitse Aruofor, Ph.D, Daniel Risiagbon Ogbeide, Ph.D

---

Abstract

Poverty and unemployment has been a daunting and challenging problem in the Fourth Republic of Nigeria. The population has been growing by about 3% and the unemployment rate as at 2021 was as high as 43%. In addition, the level of poverty is high and as at 2021, the number of poor people in Nigeria was as high as 27 million. The population of women as at 2021 was estimated as 140 million while rural population was 77 million. The unemployment and poverty situation in Nigeria has really been depressing and have continued to confound extant political regimes in the fourth democratic republic. If this condition is allowed to persist, the level of dissatisfaction is likely to increase and the economy will largely become more unproductive. In addition, some have alleged that women are marginalized in Nigeria and that development is concentrated in the urban centers to the detriment of the rural areas. Others have postulated that rural-urban migration is one of the causes of unemployment in Nigeria. These contentions are real and need to be investigated if the country is to advance in development. Indeed, the Strategic Vision for Nigeria 2030 underscores our commitment to human rights, gender equality and the empowerment of women, as well as to protecting children and harnessing the transformative power of youth. This study uses Markov Chains analysis to analyze the probable situation if things are allowed to continue in situ without any positive interventions. The results indicate that while unemployment may reduce, the reduction will not be enough to stem the rising poverty in Nigeria. Government should therefore embark on building more factories and industries especially in the rural areas of Nigeria. In addition, government should shun and fight corruption, indiscipline and greed in our everyday life as well as ensure the security of life and property in Nigeria. It should also address the problem of lopside

keywords:

Markov Chains, probability, transition matrix, poverty and unemployment, fourth republic.

---

References:

AbimbolaTemitope (2021), Unemployment Case in Nigeria: the Causes, Consequences and
Mitigating Factors. Linkedin.

Aruofor, R. O. (2003): A Presentation of Two Simulated Approaches to Markov Chains Transition
Matrix Estimation from Aggregate Data. The Nigerian Economic and Financial Review,
Vol. 8 No. 2 pp 51-76,:Department of Economics andStatistics, University of Benin,
December, 2003.

Aruofor, R. O. (2007a): An Appraisal of the Existing Measurements of Poverty and the
Evolution of a Formula for Measuring Real Poverty. The Indian Journal of Economics No.
347 Part 4 Vol. LXXXVII, pp 523-536 April 2007.

DOWNLOAD PDF

---

Back