IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND SOCIAL WELFARE RESEARCH (JPASWR )

E-ISSN 2504-3597
P-ISSN 2695-2440
VOL. 7 NO. 1 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.56201/jpaswr.v7.no1.2022.pg17.34

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The Buhari-Osinbajo Regime in Nigeria: A Post Mortem

Rex Oforitse ARUOFOR 1 and Daniel Risiagbon OGBEIDE

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Abstract

By 2023, the current administration, led by Buhari and Osinbajo will end, to give way to a new administration. It is pertinent for the people of Nigeria to have an objective appraisal of how well the Administration performed and what lessons to be learnt by a new regime. Using the Total Differential Modeling Approach (Ecostatometrics), we simulated the Nigerian economy by evoking the ex-post forecast from 2019 to 2021 and then applying the sequential dynamic feedback forecast of the Buhari administration, we evolved policy instruments to predict the state of the Nigerian economy to the end of 2023. The administration was focused and well on track between 2015 and 2018. All the sectors performed creditably well. However, from 2019, the economy began to experience grave problems and a decline in most sectors. Even though the agricultural sector, trade and services sectors performed creditably well, industry, manufacturing, construction, transport and education were depressed. General price level was as high as 295 points in 2018 and rose to 407 points in 2021, with inflation reaching an all time high of 409 points also in 2021.Unemployment rate was as high as 17.6% in 2018 and rose to 43.5% in 2021. Poverty increased as many people emigrated to other lands and over 35.5 absolute poor people were dead by 2021. Even though the administration did well in fighting and reducing corruption to N-107.5 billion by 2021, Oil revenue was still in deficit of N5.7 trillion in 2021.Insurgency and banditry grew from 126% in 2018 to 178% in 2021. Investment in Education and Industry declined from N472 billion and N4.0 trillion respectively in 2018 to N332.0 billion and N-2.8 trillion respectively in 2021.Generally, the standard of living was quite low. This poor performance may have been due to the outbreak of COVID-19 or the inability of the administration to fight and eliminate insecurity and/or poor policy choices. This postmortem analysis reveals the details.

keywords:

Total Differential Modeling Approach, Covid-19, Insurgency, Banditry, Electorate and Developmental Goals.

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